Monthly Thematic Piece

How Can Life Return To Normal Soon?
May 10, 2020
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Sunday Chemical Recap

 

How Can Life Return To Normal Soon?

 

Important Date for You Diary

BASF – May 12th 11.00am EDT – Alex Sokolowski will discuss BASF’s recent results, its industry exposure and what visibility the company has today into the different industries it serves.  Link to Registration

As we spend a second week listening through and reading countless quarterly conference calls, we highlight several thoughts:

  1. Companies for the most part are still in the dark with respect to estimating the impact of the virus – almost all are giving zero guidance for the rest of the year but are providing volume decline estimates either for 2Q or for the year.
    • Albemarle (ill-advised in our view) give an EBITDA estimate range for 2Q with the high end still above the consensus prior to the release. It would appear that much of Albemarle’s pain might be pushed into 3Q, but there was no real need to provide the range and it will be embarrassing for a new CEO if the company now misses the low end.
    • Linde, helpfully, chose to give rough guidance based on a 3Q economic recovery and also based on a 4Q recovery – showing some acceptance of the fact that we have no real idea whether the current re-opening of economies will drive a new spike in cases – evidence form Germany and South Korea suggests that it will, and we are far from out of the woods in the US yet.

See PDF Below for All Charts 

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