The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Noise Turns to Signals 
July 20, 2020
Companies Mentioned:
TPC Group, LyondellBasell, Dow, CP Chem, ExxonMobil, Methanex
Commodities Mentioned:
Report Sections:
Feedstocks & Energy, Global Ethylene Cracker, Spot Profit Analysis, Ethylene & Propylene, Price Trends, Polyethylene Review, Other Relevant Global Polymer Trends, Other Relevant Global Chemical Trends, Global Chemical Data Sheets, Flow Charts & Other Ancillary Data

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Noise Turns to Signals 

Key Points:

  • Three items signal higher global ethylene cracker operating rates ahead: 1) Butadiene springs to life; 2) ethylene derivative values rise (e.g. polyethylene rose in all major regions) despite lower ethylene values globally WoW; and 3) Feedstock spreads (e.g. Asia naphtha/US ethane) were unmoved WoW.
  • These items unite to suggest future headwinds for US ethylene derivative exporters as they should drive a reversal in pricing strength narrowing export netbacks. Today, however, there is still plenty of incentive to export
  • Methanol values tick higher on a global scale WoW while USGC natural gas values fell – this is a plus for US producers/exporters, such as Methanex. Despite the forward curve we believe that natural gas will remain weak.

See PDF below for all charts and tables 

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