Monthly Thematic Piece

Uncharted Waters – Planning When History Is No Guide
October 21, 2020
Products Mentioned:
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Ethane, Ethylene, Polyethylene, Propylene, Polypropylene, Butadiene, PVC, Epoxies, Building Products
Companies Mentioned:
LyondellBasell, Celanese, Eastman, Kraton, Orbia, Westlake, PPG, Sherwin Williams, RPM, DuPont, HB Fuller, Olin, Trinseo, Hexcel, Solvay, Formosa, CP Chem
Subjects Covered:
Price Forecast, COVID 19, The US Election, Stimulus, New Capacity, China Demand

C-MACC Perspectives 30 – Price Forecast

 

Uncharted Waters – Planning When History Is No Guide

 

  • Readers of our Daily work will be familiar with the unexpected boosts to chemical demand and profitability that have characterized 2020. COVID has upended conventional thinking and calls into question any historic proxy.
  • 3Q was better than expected for many chemical companies and better than their own guidance, suggesting many are surprised by the state of the recovery. Recent consumer spending data sheds some light but also raises questions.
  • Our general view is unchanged, but the longer demand is inflated, and prices high, the more capacity will be encouraged – especially in Asia and the bigger the fall will be when demand normalizes. We discuss likely winners and losers.

See PDF below for all charts and tables 

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