Daily Chemical Reactions | Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

How Fast Can The Brakes Come On?    
November 22, 2020
Commodities Mentioned:
PVC, PP, PE, PET, Ethylene, Chlor-Alkali, Isocyanates, Polyols, Benzene, PTA, Methanol, Crude, Naphtha, Natural Gas, NGLs, Acrylonitrile, Lithium, Ethyl Acetate, Paraxylene, Hydrogen, Tall Oil Fatty Acids (TOFA), Bisphenol A (BPA)
Companies Mentioned:
Dow, Flint Hills, Eastman, Enterprise, Westlake, CP Chem, Lyondell, Borealis, TPC, Sinopec, Invista, Kraton, 3M, Walmart, Home Depot, Kaneka, OxyChem, Formosa, Shintech, Casper, BASF, Covestro, ExxonMobil, Sasol, Aramco, Avient, Braskem, Chemtrade, DIC Corp., OQ Chemical, Lummus Tech, Nova Chemicals, PTT Global, Navigator Holdings, Tianqi, Albemarle, Altium Packaging, Ascend Performance Materials, Idesa, Croda, Iberchem, Ingevity, Mitsubishi Chemical, Nippon Kayaku, Maersk, GW Plastics, Petronas, Phillips 66, Röhm, Sakai Chemical, PureCycle, Unilever, Veolia, Methanex, Southern Chemical Company, Mitsui Chemicals, Celanese, Panasonic, Target, Halfords, Air Liquide, Ciech, Huntsman, Southern Petchem Industries, Jindal Poly Films, JM, Kemira Koppers, Linde, Siemens, Rompetrol, PTTGC America, Range Resources, Sika, Shell, TechnipFMC, OMV, Sempra Energy, China XD Plastics, Huntsman, Wanhua, Olin, AkzoNobel, Orica, Nexus, Vantage, GM, Odfjell

C-MACC Sunday Recap 41

 

How Fast Can The Brakes Come On?           

 

  • Production costs for base chemicals and polymers will unlikely drop dramatically over the next few months, but prices could. Integrated margins are high, and with global chemical production rising to full run rates, a sudden (fear induced) demand shock could trigger all sorts of problems. The odds of such a shock are not zero.
  • COVID is rampant and lockdown restrictions are likely to rise in the US, as they appear to be paying off in Europe. There is a real risk that COVID combined with the increasingly aggressive rhetoric in Washington could lead to a consumer “ah-ha” moment and shutdown buying all but essentials – assuming stockpiles are high.
  • In recent work we have suggested that demand for basic chemicals and polymers could step down dramatically post the holidays, but there is increasing risk that it happens within days, if not weeks. We discuss multiple product chains and frame sector areas where industry optimism is likely misplaced in this report.  

Last week we discussed 22 Chemical and related products and 93 Companies

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