Daily Chemical Reactions | Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

Waiting For The Big One – Is A Chemical Mega-Cycle Ahead?
November 7, 2021
Commodities Mentioned:
PVC, Polypropylene, Polyethylene, Polyurethane, Polystyrene, Polycarbonate, PET, Propylene, Ethylene, Lithium, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, LNG, Sustainable Fuels, Ammonia, Urea, Caustic Soda
Companies Mentioned:
LyondellBasell, Braskem, Pinnacle Polymers, Westlake, Olin, Shintech, OxyChem, Formosa Plastics, Aramco, Enterprise Products, Sinopec, Shell, DuPont, Ashland, Avantor, Dow, Corteva, Nutrien, Huntsman, BASF, DSM, Gail, Ganfeng Lithium, Lithium Americas, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mosaic, Nouryon, SK Innovation, Taiyo Nippon, Tosoh, Trinseo, Tronox, Ube, Univar, Arakawa Chemical, Toagosei, Asahi Glass, ExxonMobil, Maersk, Cenovus Energy, Chesapeake, Devon Energy, Williams, Suncor, Marathon Petroleum, bp, Atul, Chemtrade, Vertellus, Eastman Chemical, Eneos, Hyosung Chemical, Kao, Lenzing, LG Chem, Phillips 66, Toray, Vopak, Bosch, Honeywell, NOVA Chemicals, Tempur Sealy, Third Point, Air Products, Linde, Air Liquide, Gevo, Danimer Scientific, Aemetis, Origin Materials, TotalEnergies, Avient, Albemarle, Brenntag, Compass Minerals, GCP, Evonik, Koppers, Lanxess, Perstorp, Vynova, Bechtel, DT Midstream, Mitsubishi Power, HollyFrontier, Hertz, Neste, Eni, Kellogg, XPO Logistics, CNH Industrial, Cummins, Pertamina, SK Chemicals, USA Truck, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Yara, Aker Clean Hydrogen, CP Chemical, Mitsui Chemicals, Enbridge, TC Energy, Flint Hills, Invista, Uniper, Asahi Kasei, Borealis, Chevron, Fortescue, Indorama Ventures, Nocil, Odfjell, PTTGC

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 91

Waiting For The Big One – Is A Chemical Mega-Cycle Ahead?

  • Limited capital spending to grow basic chemical capacity due to cost and long-term demand uncertainties could cause a mid-decade global profit mega-cycle. 
  • Emission abatement initiatives and concerns with feedstock prices/availability will work against the justification of capacity expansions in every global region.  
  • Demand growth mitigation from plastic bans, renewables, and increased like-for-like recycling is unlikely to impact materially pre-2026/27.  
  • 2022 is very hard to call – while we expect lower US margins than 2021, we can also see better scenarios, although energy is a wildcard – more to follow on this.
  • Otherwise, we look at the very significant post-COP26 challenges, including how to persuade people to switch away from still valuable ICE vehicles quickly.

Last week we discussed 23 Chemicals and related products and 116 Companies.

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