The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – September in the Rain
September 6, 2022
Companies Mentioned:
Westlake, Shin-Etsu, Formosa Plastics, Occidental, Olin, ExxonMobil, CP Chemical, LyondellBasell, Dow, Nova Chemicals, Nutrien, CF Industries, LSB Industries, ADM, The Andersons
Commodities Mentioned:
Report Sections:
Feedstocks & Energy, Global Ethylene Cracker, Spot Profit Analysis, Ethylene & Propylene, Price Trends, Polyethylene Review, Other Relevant Global Polymer Trends, Other Relevant Global Chemical Trends, Global Chemical Data Sheets, Flow Charts & Other Ancillary Data

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – September in the Rain

Key Points:

  • Global polymer prices declined again WoW, but global feedstock prices, on avg., fell more, halting further profit declines for integrated producers that, in some cases, are below 2018/19 levels.
  • We see a greater risk that feedstocks/energy costs march higher into year-end, further pinching integrated polymer producer profit than polymer price strength spurring a rebound in margins.
  • Street profit estimates, per our view, have not fallen enough for 2H22/2023 to give us confidence that an investor sentiment shift from negative to positive towards chemical sector equities is at hand.
  • US ethanol margins held up WoW, crop prices on average also reflect support, and fertilizer prices rose relative to feedstock costs. Our constructive view of the agriculture sector remains intact.

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