Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

Five Highlights: China Rising, Ethylene Margins, Real Chemical Prices, OPEC, and How Not To Manage Inflation
October 16, 2022
Commodities Mentioned:
PVC, Polypropylene, Polyethylene, Polyurethane, Polycarbonate, Polystyrene, PET, Clean Energy Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, LNG, Crude/Naphtha, Synthetic Fuel, Renewable Power, Nuclear Power, Ammonia, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Batteries, Materials, Chemicals
Companies Mentioned:
Dow, Nova Chemicals, Enterprise Products, CP Chemical, ExxonMobil, Westlake, BASF, Olin, Formosa Plastics, LyondellBasell, Braskem, PPG, Celanese, Huntsman, Nutrien, CF Industries, Koch Fertilizer, Shell, Nova Chemicals, Denbury, Advent, Lanxess, Core Lithium, DuPont, Brenntag, Givaudan, Honeywell, Lotte Chemical, OMV, PKN Orlen, POSCO, Eastman, Sherwin-Williams, AkzoNobel, Solvay, Covia, Asahi Kasei, Borealis, Freyr Battery, Ineos Styrolution, Tokai Carbon Genox Recycling, Cummins, Johnson Matthey, Vopak, Schlumberger, TC Energy, TotalEnergies, Aramco, Nexam Chemical, Infineum, Charbone, Flint Hills, Covestro, Westinghouse, Petrobras, Brookfield Renewable, Repsol, Safex Chemicals, Briar Chemicals, Toyobo, Indorama, Chevron, Petronas Chemicals, Perstorp, GAIL, Kolmar, Plug Power, Superior Drilling Products, Air Products, Arkema, Bloomberg, OMV Petrom, Rio Tinto, Viterra, Bockatech, BP, Nexeo Plastics, Capstone Green Energy, Cepsa, GM, Apollo, Arconic, Maersk, Saint-Gobain, Uniper, PepsiCo, Issaquena Green Power, EQT, Alaska LNG, Hilcorp, GE, Blackrock, Yara, K+S, Fastenal, Grupa Azoty, IFF, Hyundai, Ascend Elements, EcoPro Group, Sempra Infrastructure, Acteco, AVANGRID, Wabtec, Enviva, Diamondback Energy, Scania, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Gevo, Graphic Packaging, Michelin, Fuel Hydrogen, ADM, Bunge, Dharamsi Morarji, Coca-Cola, Eni, Enel, Worley, Wanhua Chemical, Agilis, Hyosung Advanced Materials, Idemitsu Kosan, Eneos, Shin-Etsu, M. Holland, MEGlobal

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 139

Five Highlights: China Rising, Ethylene Margins, Real Chemical Prices, OPEC, and How Not To Manage Inflation

  • High inflation in the US relative to China and the strength of the dollar are improving China’s competitive edge meaningfully – falling freight costs also help.
  • Global ethylene margins are at all-time (40 years plus) lows, partly explained by a thinner spot market and the acute demand weakness we see today.
  • Contract chemical and polymer pricing is meaningless in the US, with record spreads vs spot prices suggesting that anyone paying full price is operating poorly.  
  • OPEC is attracting anger in the US, but messages are mixed, and we favor the notion that OPEC is simply ahead of what it sees as very negative demand trends.
  • Inflation/recession management is showing government/economic naivety, especially in the UK. You cannot tame inflation by increasing spending power.

Last week we discussed 22 Chemicals and related products and 128 Companies.

What mattered last week? We are mixing up the Sunday format;

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams

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