Daily Chemical Reaction
Fertilizer Markets Wipe Their Bottom – Market Bloating & Indigestion Has Lessened, Nutritious Outlook Emerges
- Global ammonia markets have weakened notably from 2022 highs, but better conditions are on the horizon, and we view the price setting as much more likely to improve than further erode.
- CF Industries and Nutrien post 2Q23 results and provide constructive fertilizer market views, with many similarities to peer reports, such as at Yara and LSB Industries, supporting our outlook.
- Agriculture market indicators display a favorable farmer income setting, a plus for absorbing farm input oversupply in some chains, such as at FMC, that are still facing notable destocking.
- We discuss likely challenges facing the clean product build-out at CF Industries and concerns likely beyond costs at Nutrien that caused it to delay its potential blue project at Geismar.
- Challenges sourcing green power in regulated utility markets will likely be more difficult than project estimates suggest, and we flag items learned with the Issaquena Green Power project.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams