China: The Biggest Unknown, The Biggest Hope and Largest Threat
Those signaling a bottom in many chemical markets as they report 2Q earnings are making an implicit bet on China, regardless of whether they have real insight.
The slowdown in China, which has caught all by surprise, is impacting China from a margin perspective, but possibly less so on volume – everyone else is feeling that.
Expectations of a better 2024 suggest a huge turnaround in Chinese demand growth or massive rationalization, which history shows will not happen that fast.
Pockets of strength exist where the overbuild has not happened – coatings and industrial gases, but even here further economic weakness would not help.
Many are talking about better 2Q numbers especially outside the US and current price momentum but are not commenting on the rapid July rise in crude oil prices.
C-MACC is coordinating and moderating a hydrogen expert panel discussion at the World Chemical Forum in Houston from September 12-14
Note that this is the old CMAI conference as was the heart of the successor IHS conference – so filled with relevant presentations on the global chemical industry.Also, note that C-MACC will be following this presentation with a client and friends of C-MACC cocktails and dinner – details to be announced.
Last week we discussed 26 Chemicals and Related Products and 132 Companies.