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what we are talking about today

Daily Chemical Reaction

Addicted To Love – Chemical Producer Views Stay Broadly Optimistic; 2Q Auto Disruptions Flagged

March-quarter chemical profits broadly exceed Street expectations and the guidance offered in early 2021. Full-year profit outlooks are also on the rise.
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., Ashland, BASF, Clariant, Hexpol, Kraton, Methanex, Orbia, PQ Group, SABIC, Shell, Sinopec, OCI, & Total profit postings; multiple global sector Capex updates)
We preview LyondellBasell’s results tomorrow with some Dow compares
We flag inflating input costs for many chemical end-product producers across various raw materials beyond commodity chemicals.
We discuss Ford and Mini news of production issues due to semiconductor sourcing issues. Notable impacts expected in the June quarter.We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., Ashland, BASF, Clariant, Hexpol, Kraton, Methanex, Orbia, PQ Group, SABIC, Shell, Sinopec, OCI, & Total profit postings; multiple global sector Capex updates)
US refinery operating rates & US chemical rail traffic increased WoW.
We flag inflating input costs for many chemical end-product producers across various raw materials beyond commodity chemicals.
We discuss Ford and Mini news of production issues due to semiconductor sourcing issues. Notable impacts expected in the June quarter.

Sector Per-Unit Profit Trends Robust, Producers Set To Battle Degradation As Supply Chains Normalize

Commodity chemical per-unit profit postings remain robust in 1Q reports – we flag recent polyurethane trends at Covestro & ECU trends at Olin.
We frame the Methanex North America methanol contract nomination for May relative to US & Asia spot prices, & historic contract premium trends.
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate items (e.g., 3M, Covestro, LG Chem, Olin, Shin-Etsu, Tikkurila, & Tokuyama business updates).
We flag the rising fund flows targeting CCS & unrealistic hydrogen goals.
The Baltic Index hits a 10-year high amid continued freight rate strength.

Elevated Demand Expectations Lessen Input Cost Concerns; ESG News Flow High

Downstream/specialty producers push prices to offset 1H21 raw material cost strength in some product chains – inflationary for the consumer
Axalta, BP, Ecolab, Kemira, Elkem, Honeywell, JSR, Posco Chemical, Stepan, Sekisui, Shikoku, & Sherwin-Williams business updates.
Plastic sourcing issues persist in the US, but availability is rising in China.
EU CO2e prices hit a record this week. ESG news flow remains high.
The Freightos China-to-US freight rate index remains at multi-year highs.
Numerous other pertinent chemical sector items are discussed.We highlight Axalta, BP, Ecolab, Kemira, Elkem, Honeywell, JSR, Posco Chemical, Stepan, Sekisui, Shikoku, & Sherwin-Williams business updates.
Plastic sourcing issues persist in the US, but availability is rising in China.
EU CO2e prices hit a record this week. ESG news flow remains high.
The Freightos China-to-US freight rate index remains at multi-year highs.
Numerous other pertinent chemical sector items are noted in this report.

what we are saying about tomorrow

CLIMATE, ESG, ETC. & Perspectives 

True Blue: Not Green but Likely Good Enough

This report focuses on what may be practical, achievable, and most important, good enough, from a climate change target perspective, versus some of the more “perfect” but likely impractical alternates.
If cumulative greenhouse gas is causing temperatures to rise and damaging the planet, focusing on what can lower emissions as soon as possible, regardless of whether the path is elegant or ugly, should be the most important goal.
With little or no real global coordination, a large collection of separate moves, perhaps promoted by local interests or shareholder/lender pressure, may sum to something unintended such as rapid inflation in renewable power costs.

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