US commodity chemical producers maintain a production cost advantage relative to most Ex-US producers, even including the recent surge in natural gas and ethane values, but profit headwinds continue to mount for 2022. We flag our latest Chemical market thematic research, The Winners & Losers from A Consumer Slowdown. Also, see our ESG weekly, critiquing several ESG pledges issued in recent earnings and sustainability reports. Other global commodity trends flagged in this report comprise monomer, polymer, and feedstock indicators relevant to gauging sector profitability.
US petrochemical producers, on average, have experienced cost inflation in 2Q22, as USGC natural gas and ethane prices have surged. In contrast, Ex-US energy values have moderated from 1H22 highs but remain higher YTD. We highlight pertinent energy, chemical, and other corporate updates (e.g., AdvanSix, Evonik, Chesapeake, Eastman Chemical, Air Products, & others). We discuss relevant ESG items ranging from Bloom Energy and Clean Energy 1Q22 results to an update on an Enbridge CCS project in Canada. We also highlight our latest ESG sector dedicated weekly research in LINK. We discuss numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.
Global chemical sector margins take a hit from higher energy costs YTD. We foresee mounting product price headwinds in 2H22 as supply availability improves, consumer affordability shrinks, and input costs remain elevated. We highlight pertinent energy, chemical, and other corporate updates (e.g., Shell, Albemarle, Lanxess, Ingevity, Venator, CF Industries, and others). We discuss relevant ESG items ranging from Denbury 1Q22 results and ambitions in CCUS to the Berry Plastics circular plastic target for 2030. See our latest ESG weekly and other related research coverage in LINK. We discuss numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.
The wind power industry is in significant trouble and the last couple of years have been plagued with negative revisions, despite a strong demand outlook. The issues have been much worse at Siemens Gamesa than others as the company has also mismanaged a new generation of product roll-out. In 2021 and 2022, material shortages, supply chain disruptions, and increasingly higher input costs have also hurt, but overconfidence has played a major part. Separately, we look at the API carbon tax plan – a major shirt for the API, but still not a proposal, in our view, that will help reduce emissions – just raise prices. Otherwise, we look at the cost issues with chemical recycling, how emissions are leading corporate concerns, the unending need for renewable power, and Tesla.
Despite a wave of generally strong earnings, both macro data and reports from companies closer to the consumer are more worrying and signal trouble ahead The consumer spending component of US 1Q GDP implies a significant fall in volume in the quarter, which may explain increased signs of inventory builds. With most US manufacturers operating at high rates and imports showing little sign of slowing, a weaker demand second quarter could expose surpluses In Europe things are different but worse, with confidence levels falling, against a backdrop of a rapid increase in inflation – economic growth is weakening daily Otherwise, we look at the winners and losers in 1Q, issues with the wind industry, refining capacity limits in the US, and the strength of the dollar.