Global Market Analysis

Crack Less, Feed More: Capital Feeds Fertilizer, Midstream, and Specialties as Plastics Starve

February 5, 2026

General Thoughts: Ammonia’s fertilizer-anchored cycle diverges from most chemicals, signaling tight supply and investment incentives, while petrochemicals face surplus-driven signals discouraging growth capital.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Asian petrochemicals face structural oversupply, with pricing, not demand, driving losses, forcing restructuring, cost exits, and portfolio shifts that favor early movers through 2026.

Energy/Upstream:

You Don’t Have to Be a Weather Man: Feedstock Risk Is Blowing Through Chemicals

February 3, 2026

General Thoughts: Natural gas volatility now translates into risk, as export integration, consolidation, and midstream optionality reprice feedstock economics, slow marginal investment, and lift risk premiums.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Propylene prices increasingly reflect operational reliability and feedstock economics, as outages, cracking mix, and integration shape volatility, spreads, and regional competitiveness.

Energy/Upstream:

Slicked Back: Restructuring Clears the Field, Global Alignment Drives the Outlook

January 29, 2026

General Thoughts: Global chemical restructuring optimizes footprints, shrinks effective supply, and embeds optionality, positioning low-cost, low-carbon assets like Dow’s Path2Zero to lift returns in the cycle ahead.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Structural closures and Asian consolidation are curbing chemical supply ahead of demand, improving market balance in 2026 and lifting the odds

Baby It’s Cold Outside: Volatility Trims Inventories; Supports Monomers, Tests Polymers

January 27, 2026

General Thoughts: USGC outages reduce inventories, support monomer prices, and heighten volatility, favoring near-term monomer uplift over polymers ahead of a potentially heavier 1H26 turnaround season.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Short USGC freeze-led outages curb excess monomer inventories, amplify near-term volatility, and provide pricing support for base chemicals in 1H26 despite global

It’s Not All Relative: Higher Absolute Natural Gas Costs Lift Chemical Floors and Squeeze Margins

January 22, 2026

General Thoughts: Weather-driven global natural gas inflation supports higher chemical prices despite relative cost positions holding, with chemical margins compressing absent structural supply cuts.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Butadiene prices increase on tighter C4 supply and resilient tire demand, with Asia setting margins and 2026 outcomes for the global market hinging on

Margin Defense Mode Activated: Cost Curves Strike Back Globally

January 15, 2026

General Thoughts: Early 2026 chemical sector updates signal margin defense over volume, as pricing, self-help, and restructuring offset weak demand, policy uncertainty persists, and capacity shifts shape outcomes.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Cost shifts anchor polymer markets, with price stabilization favoring disciplined global producers, as feedstock divergence and restructuring pressures redefine margin

When Harry Met Ethylene: Chemistry Holds, Low Returns Are Sending The Global Couple To Therapy!

January 14, 2026

General Thoughts: Early-2026 cost-curve shifts amid persistent chemical market oversupply are forcing restructuring, with clear evidence likely emerging in 4Q25 results and more decisive 2026 strategic outlooks.

Supply Chain/Commodities: US ethylene exports deliver higher value to consumers than ethane, but greater domestic absorption, derivative pull, and policy pressures should tighten

The Streak: Chemical Producers Run For Safety, As Capital Selectively Turns The Other Cheek

January 8, 2026

General Thoughts: Global chemical downturn into 2026 will force ownership change and capital discipline, restructuring across Europe and Asia ex-China, while redefining low-cost integration as defense, not growth.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Flat cost curves, persistent oversupply, and selective arbitrage are accelerating restructuring, favoring low-cost producers while forcing Europe and Asia ex-China

Landslide: Capacity, Policy Will Shift 2026 Markets Faster Than Demand Recovers

January 6, 2026

General Thoughts: Ammonia markets hinge on reliability, not recovery, keeping prices elevated as supply additions lag volatility, farmer demand flexes, and integrated low-cost producers outperform in early 2026.

Supply Chain/Commodities: China-driven polyolefin oversupply shifts clearing to trade, while PVC could tighten faster than polyolefins on housing. Lithium also strengthens as