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what we are talking about today

Daily Chemical Reaction

Runaway – US Ethane Price Strength Reflects Strong Demand, Hurts Domestic Cracker Profits

Runaway – US Ethane Price Strength Reflects Strong Demand, Hurts Domestic Cracker Profits

USGC natural gas spot values have decreased sharply relative to USGC ethane values near the end of 2Q22, a quarter that reflects lower QoQ profit for most commodity chemical producers ahead of a likely turbulent 2H22.
We highlight pertinent energy, chemical, and other corporate updates (e.g., Kumho Petrochemical, Venture Global, H.B. Fuller, Huntsman, & others).
We discuss ESG items that range from views on the ethanol market to a general comparison of the potential for solar and wind developments in a few major global regions. We also flag our ESG weekly research in LINK.
We discuss numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

Rock and A Hard Place – Chemical Market Indicators Suggest Stiffening Profit Headwinds In 2H22

Rock and A Hard Place – Chemical Market Indicators Suggest Stiffening Profit Headwinds In 2H22

The profit headwinds that faced US petrochemical producers in 2Q were higher at the end of the quarter relative to its start. We advise corporates to not maintain overly optimistic 2H22 outlooks based on stale data points.
We highlight pertinent energy, chemical, and other corporate updates (e.g., ExxonMobil, H.B. Fuller, Eastman, Air Liquide, Pilbara, Cheniere, & others).
We discuss ESG items that range from PTTGC evaluating an advanced recycling facility in Ohio to the many benefits of plastic food packaging that critics should consider. We also flag our ESG weekly research in LINK.
We discuss numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

The Walls Are Way Too Thin – 2H22 Chemical Sector Profit Faces A Mix of Structure & Foundation Issues

The Walls Are Way Too Thin – 2H22 Chemical Sector Profit Faces A Mix of Structure & Foundation Issues

US chemical production costs surged in 2Q22 relative to Ex-US levels. US polymer price weakness, amid more supply, and an unlikely quick global cost curve steepening, pose 2H22 profit headwinds beyond our demand concerns.
We highlight pertinent energy, chemical, and other corporate updates (e.g., Occidental, BASF, LyondellBasell, ChemOne, AdvanSix, INEOS, & others).
We discuss ESG items that range from Umicore investor day commentary to critical mineral price inflation impacting clean energy project development costs. We also flag our ESG weekly thematic research in LINK.
We discuss numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

what we are saying about tomorrow

ESG, Recycling & climate 

Frantic Across The Atlantic – Common Sense Takes a Back Seat

Frantic Across The Atlantic – Common Sense Takes a Back Seat

Consensus energy transition and emission views appearing possible post COP26 are on shaky ground as politicians (especially in Europe) face bigger challenges.
As approval ratings collapse, some of the tougher coordinated climate change actions may be pushed aside. Activists will likely step up aggressively if this occurs.
Europe is the most vulnerable as the economic issues (inflation, energy, etc.) and disagreements could cause further fragmentation of the union and civil unrest.
Meanwhile, countries and companies push ahead with flagship projects, mainly hydrogen, that look to add to inflation. Will some be top of the cost curve?
Otherwise, we look at recycling and packagers’ need to change targets, falling CO2 credits, power price inflation, and why we like hydrogen equipment makers.

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what we are covering

Sunday Thematic & weekly recap 

Enemy Of The State – Inflation Broadly Cuts Profits, Blasts Budgets

Enemy Of The State – Inflation Broadly Cuts Profits, Blasts Budgets

US manufacturers and consumers face persistent inflationary headwinds – our industry indicators and analysis from Washington suggest a quick fix is unlikely.
Our (first ever) guest writer (Chris Sheeron) identified and discussed why some “band-aid” legislative initiatives to combat energy inflation are “unworkable”.
Energy and Agriculture commodity price inflation implies cost headwinds for US manufacturers, spurring efforts to lift prices despite mounting demand concerns.
US gasoline prices hit another record this weekend above US$5/gal. We flag our views on this market, recent developments in ethanol, and other related items.
Otherwise, we comment on the DOE hydrogen hub initiative, paint a positive picture of clean-ammonia demand, and frame a few recent trends in hydro-power.

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