Global Market Analysis

Crack the Code: Refining Shows What Crude Prices Alone Cannot

August 11, 2026

General Thoughts: Refining margins remain elevated amid shifting crude prices, underscoring that product balances and regional economics can matter more than headline crude direction for downstream earnings.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Lower sulfur costs could improve phosphate margins before fertilizer demand recovers, allowing producer earnings to strengthen before cost relief meaningfully reaches

Split Decision: One Energy Shock, Two Very Different Paths to Cost Relief

August 6, 2026

General Thoughts: Recent crude relief is narrowing oil-linked costs faster than gas-linked economics, preserving North America’s ammonia and methanol advantage as energy markets normalize unevenly.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Ammonia pricing should remain supported as disruptions constrain deliverable supply and selective investment increases the market’s dependence on existing low-cost production.

Energy/Upstream: Middle

House Divided: Infrastructure Builds as Housing Stays Rate-Bound

August 4, 2026

General Thoughts: Mortgage rates at a 2026 high are widening earnings gaps across construction markets, favoring businesses tied to funded infrastructure over those awaiting a residential recovery.

Supply Chain/Commodities: PVC integration strengthens earnings when downstream outlets absorb resin without sacrificing margins, often making product and end-market mix as important as

The Margin Has to Land Somewhere: US Ammonia Captures the Upside, Ethanol Absorbs the Cost

July 30, 2026

General Thoughts: Volatility is shifting margins across value chains, with US ammonia benefiting from constrained supply and firmer corn as ethanol producers and downstream buyers face weaker cost recovery.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Methanol should remain volatile as Gulf disruptions limit supply and high ex-US natural gas costs pressure production, but derivative

Heat Check: Weak Demand Meets the Rising Cost of Keeping Supply Moving

July 28, 2026

General Thoughts: Extreme heat, low Rhine levels, and elevated feedstock costs are keeping chemical prices firm, but weak customer economics are limiting producers’ ability to recover those costs.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Propylene remains firm despite weak downstream pricing power, as outages and trade constraints offset easing crude costs and keep regional

The Great Divide: Control Protects Returns, Weak Assets Face the Cut

July 23, 2026

General Thoughts: Supportive prices and cost takeouts increase upside for low-cost producers as high-cost operators restructure for survival, widening earnings gaps and increasing pressure for capacity reductions.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Coatings tied to specifications and warranties should preserve pricing through input-cost volatility, widening margins over commodity producers with less influence on

Power Struggle: Europe Pays to Stand Still as America Keeps the Cost Edge

July 21, 2026

Global Market Analysis Power Struggle: Europe Pays to Stand Still as America Keeps the Cost Edge Key Findings Exhibit 1: Germany’s Rising Power Prices Add Another Headwind to Europe’s Industrial Competitiveness. Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, July 2026 See the PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams

You Can’t Hurry Consumption: 2Q Gains Face a Tougher Second Half as Power Cuts the Line

July 16, 2026

General Thoughts: Company-specific pricing, cost timing, and supply advantages lifted 2Q26 results before end demand improved, leaving 2H26 performance exposed to higher inputs and normalized competition.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Butadiene should find support as feedstocks rebound, limiting tiremaker relief and making price retention critical as European tariffs redirect Chinese competition toward

The Heat Is On: China Carries the Cost, Global Chemicals Share the Bill

July 14, 2026

General Thoughts: China’s producer prices absorb oil shocks more quickly than consumer prices, leaving manufacturers to bear more of the cost and seek stronger returns outside the domestic market.

Supply Chain/Commodities: US feedstock economics and available Chinese capacity filled part of the Hormuz supply gap, giving buyers alternatives that may