Global Market Analysis

Margin Defense Mode Activated: Cost Curves Strike Back Globally

January 15, 2026

General Thoughts: Early 2026 chemical sector updates signal margin defense over volume, as pricing, self-help, and restructuring offset weak demand, policy uncertainty persists, and capacity shifts shape outcomes.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Cost shifts anchor polymer markets, with price stabilization favoring disciplined global producers, as feedstock divergence and restructuring pressures redefine margin

When Harry Met Ethylene: Chemistry Holds, Low Returns Are Sending The Global Couple To Therapy!

January 14, 2026

General Thoughts: Early-2026 cost-curve shifts amid persistent chemical market oversupply are forcing restructuring, with clear evidence likely emerging in 4Q25 results and more decisive 2026 strategic outlooks.

Supply Chain/Commodities: US ethylene exports deliver higher value to consumers than ethane, but greater domestic absorption, derivative pull, and policy pressures should tighten

The Streak: Chemical Producers Run For Safety, As Capital Selectively Turns The Other Cheek

January 8, 2026

General Thoughts: Global chemical downturn into 2026 will force ownership change and capital discipline, restructuring across Europe and Asia ex-China, while redefining low-cost integration as defense, not growth.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Flat cost curves, persistent oversupply, and selective arbitrage are accelerating restructuring, favoring low-cost producers while forcing Europe and Asia ex-China

Landslide: Capacity, Policy Will Shift 2026 Markets Faster Than Demand Recovers

January 6, 2026

General Thoughts: Ammonia markets hinge on reliability, not recovery, keeping prices elevated as supply additions lag volatility, farmer demand flexes, and integrated low-cost producers outperform in early 2026.

Supply Chain/Commodities: China-driven polyolefin oversupply shifts clearing to trade, while PVC could tighten faster than polyolefins on housing. Lithium also strengthens as

Polyethylene – December Monthly Price Expectation Report

December 19, 2025

Polyethylene – December Monthly Price Expectation Report

When the Tide Goes Out: Refining Holds, Chemicals Must Cut

December 18, 2025

General Thoughts: Global average ethylene production margins collapsed in early 4Q25 then stabilized modestly, but only restructuring like high-cost cracker closures can loosely replicate refining’s recent margin lift sustainably.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Propylene markets remain oversupplied, with Asia as the global clearing mechanism, leaving standalone producers more exposed than cost-advantaged integrated

There Will Be Blood, Closures: Global Return Hurdles Further Harden Into 2026

December 16, 2025

Global Market Analysis There Will Be Blood, Closures: Global Return Hurdles Further Harden Into 2026 Key Findings Exhibit 1: Real rates strengthen globally in late 2025 as Brent crude oil softens, tightening capital markets and returns. Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, December 2025 See the PDF below for all charts, tables,

Sprockets! Power Demand Surges as Gas Spreads Compress and European Chemicals Stop Dancing

December 11, 2025

General Thoughts: Growing structural natural gas demand, persistent global chemical overcapacity, and tighter grid constraints will jointly determine competitiveness and boost cross-sector consolidation well into 2026.

Supply Chain/Commodities: Structural cost disadvantages, weak demand, and global overcapacity deepened Europe’s 2H25 chemical sector downturn, reinforcing its need for coordinated rationalization and credible

Under Pressure: Natural Gas Spreads Compress, and Policy Expectations Turn Markets Inside Out

December 9, 2025

Global Market Analysis Under Pressure: Natural Gas Spreads Compress, and Policy Expectations Turn Markets Inside Out Key Findings Exhibit 1: EU carbon prices outpace fading gas premium, fundamentally recasting industrial cost hierarchies. Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, December 2025 See the PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams