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Latest Reports

 

Our most recent publications are summarized in the blocks below and a more complete list can be found to the right of the blocks. Please call us with any questions.

Carbon: Trading, Offsets, and CCS as a Service – It’s All Coming!

If CCS has enough momentum to become a large part of the path to net-zero, there will inevitably be a role for those offering end-to-end solutions.
Smaller footprint carbon emitters cannot resolve their carbon issues as cheaply as those servicing many in the same geography – cost will dictate behavior.   
Carbon offset prices hit a record high with the Iceland DAC facility – showing how much consumers are willing to pay for a concrete audit-proof offset.
Attempts by the oil majors to show their greener ambitions get no reward from investors and, as the news increases, valuations reflect investor skepticism.
Otherwise, we talk about the run-up to COP26 – the hopes for the meeting and the likelihood that grand ambitions will not materialize – small victories only.

The Weary Kind – Record Profits Has Not Translated Into Record US Commodity Chemical Equity Values

US commodity chemical sector profits remain near multi-year highs after rising significantly in some product chains since the start of 2021. We discuss why this has not resulted in equity outperformance for some beneficiaries.
We flag pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., LyondellBasell, Azelis, Pilbara Minerals, Sasol, Halder Topsoe, BASF & other items).
We find varied ESG items worth consideration, ranging from EU carbon values retreating from record highs WoW to several sector initiative updates.
We note numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

Mess Around – Production Issues, Higher Input Costs, & Logistical Constraints Support US Prices, For Now

We discuss several support factors moving in favor of commodity chemical price support and generally frame the recent US contract push in PVC. On average, supply chains remain far from normal and in favor of US producers.
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., DSM, Kem One, Tronox, Aramco, Avient, Koppers, Albemarle, Formosa & other items).
We find varied ESG items worth considering, ranging from Chevron views of future Capex in this area to several global strategic announcements.
We note numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this r

Global Chemical Update – Take Me Away

US commodity chemical price premiums remain pronounced relative to Asia across most polymer markets, and we argue that USGC Tropical Storm Nicholas and lingering global logistical issues suggest support through 3Q21.
Global commodity value shifts were mixed WoW. We discuss the drop in US spot ethylene but its rise in Asia, while US Natural gas/NGLs held strong.   
Other global commodity trends flagged in this report comprise monomer, polymer, and feedstock indicators relevant to gauging sector profitability.

All Paths Lead To Consolidation for Big Energy and Chemicals

The market response to the Chevron Gevo announcement supports the view that viable options for major companies to counter ESG trends are limited.  
The deal was perceived as good for Gevo and immaterial for Chevron. We discuss other ESG efforts, such as those from bp, that have seen no market appreciation. 
Some energy companies are too big to change quickly or meaningfully toward more ESG friendly businesses – some chemical and polymer companies are similar.
Trimming valuable side businesses and pursuing large-scale mergers may be one of the only ways to unlock value – EBITDA from synergies vs than CAPEX/M&A.
In the West, chemical producer profits are historically strong, providing a false sense of security.  A “first-mover” large-scale merger today might gain support. 

Last Cigarette – US Polyethylene Price Premiums At Risk Of Burn Out; Carbon Cutting Tech In Focus

US polyethylene (PE) values have surged relative to Asia in 2021. We flag an array of factors to consider in late 2021 that put US premiums at risk.    
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., Albemarle, Dow, Westlake, Mitsui Chemicals, Avantor, Aramco, Sinopec & other items).
We highlight our latest ESG weekly research and numerous other ESG items worth note, ranging from proposed taxes to new technology updates.
We note numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.