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Our most recent publications are summarized in the blocks below and you can browse through all our reports to the right of the blocks. We encourage you to request a trial for full access to our research.

Can’t You See – Chemicals To Face Harsh 4Q Setting, Agriculture Sector Trends To Remain Constructive

Can’t You See – Chemicals To Face Harsh 4Q Setting, Agriculture Sector Trends To Remain Constructive

We follow our September 1 research, Wake Me Up When September Ends (Though It May Get Worse In 4Q22!) – Chemical Profits Face Narcolepsy, to close the month with updated views of 4Q22 and why we think sector profit estimates remain too high.
We highlight the Williams reiteration of 2022 profit guidance, as the energy space remains quite profitable, in contrast to chemicals, and we discuss energy price trends.
We discuss the trends favoring Navigator Holdings and Enterprise Products to boost its US ethylene exports and that Trinseo is mulling the closure of EU styrene capacity.
The C-MACC clean energy mineral index declined ~2% MoM in September, but the pace of change is moderating. We also highlight the Talos Energy expansion in CCS.
We study US consumer spending trends, flag the nearly 20yr high seen in US mortgage rates, and discuss why our chemical end market demand concerns are high near term.

Cruisin’ For A Bruisin’ – Auto Market Consumers Get Run Over, Suppliers Should Buckle Their Safety Belts

Cruisin’ For A Bruisin’ – Auto Market Consumers Get Run Over, Suppliers Should Buckle Their Safety Belts

Consumer affordability indicators are braking amid rising borrowing costs and low confidence, positioning auto markets to hit a brick wall with chemical suppliers in tow.
Lame Duck Oil! Despite high prices and political pressure, the lack of attractive long-term returns is working against capital-intensive investment to boost oil production.
We discuss why LyondellBasell’s decision not to restart its Berre, France cracker until 2023 is not surprising. We also flag recent methanol contract postings from Methanex.
Government programs intending to spur green power and associated infrastructure continue to mount, and we advise focusing on programs with a competitive edge.
We highlight CarMax and Bed Bath & Beyond business updates, continued US Dollar strength relative to other major currencies, and inflation mismanagement in the UK.

Down On The Corner – Global Polymer Prices Have Mostly Reset To Pre-Covid Levels, Costs Have Not

Down On The Corner – Global Polymer Prices Have Mostly Reset To Pre-Covid Levels, Costs Have Not

Global polymers and many other commodity chemicals have mostly fallen back to pre-covid levels. However, producer margins remain compressed amid high energy prices.
We discuss energy market trends and news that Mexico plans to build an LNG export hub in the Gulf of Mexico to serve Europe, which will likely depend on US natural gas.
Despite recent cost relief, we are more concerned with higher 4Q commodity chemical production costs than rebounding global demand spurring chemical price increases.
We discuss European geothermal development ambitions, green hydrogen producers by region and method and related developments, and recent EU CO2 price weakness.
US 10yr treasury yields touch 4%, the first time this has happened in roughly 14 years. US home prices also declined MoM in July, and German business sentiment is falling.

Love For Sale – Europe Assets Move To Bargain Bin Amid Currency Depreciation, Weak Fundamentals

Love For Sale – Europe Assets Move To Bargain Bin Amid Currency Depreciation, Weak Fundamentals

AkzoNobel provides a business update stressing fundamental headwinds in 3Q22 will likely persist in 4Q, and European currencies have devalued relative to the US Dollar.
US energy exports remain in considerable demand abroad – we flag trends in LNG and petroleum product markets that favor higher US prices amid strong global demand.
We are more concerned with global chemical demand than supply availability in 2H22, noting takeaways from the ACC, Avient, AkzoNobel, and Chlor-vinyl trends in China.
We discuss hydrogen hub developments and government initiatives to ensure their success, highlight generally weak recycled polymer markets, and SAF market news.
US mortgage rates have surged towards 7%, China freight rates to the US continue to collapse, and the US Dollar reflects a ~20year high relative to major foreign currencies.

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