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Latest Reports

 

Our most recent publications are summarized in the blocks below and a more complete list can be found to the right of the blocks. Please call us with any questions.

Patience – Corporate Outlooks Point To Lingering Supply Chain Issues; 2H21 To Stay Far From Normal

This report discusses pertinent takeaways from recent chemical sector business updates, ranging from cost inflation trends to producer outlooks.    
We highlight Axalta, RPM, Sherwin-Williams, Reliance, SABIC, Shin-Etsu, ExxonMobil, & Neste news, & discuss global production update items.  
US contract propylene values take a step higher in July MoM based on spot support. We also flag US ethylene and benzene spot market trends.  
We highlight several climate-friendly initiatives from traditional channels and corporate reports, such as Neste, Berkshire Hathaway & Home Depot.
The Baltic Exchange Freight Rate Index reflects tight global conditions, and we find indications of many global supply chain issues persisting in 3Q21.
We note numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

Global Chemical Update – Wave On Wave

Our global commodity price sheets continue to display a compelling profit setting for Western chemical producers. This report comments on premium polymer values and the risk that high prices could spur product substitution.
Global Butadiene spot levels increased WoW, while US spot ethylene and propylene values fell WoW on an absolute basis and relative to Asia levels.   
Other global commodity trends flagged in this report comprise monomer, polymer, and feedstock indicators relevant to gauging sector profitability.

More Records Than The Olympics! Markets Not Convinced

Exceptional strength in 2Q results for chemicals in the West becomes more evident as earnings season unfolds. We discuss drivers and early 2H21 trends.
Out-of-whack global supply chains combined with strong demand to spur 2Q21 results. 3Q commodity sector profit expectations have risen, while those of specialty producers have moderated with lingering but well-flagged cost inflation.
Trade data and shipping rates suggest that end-market demand drivers remain strong, especially in the US and Europe, spurring sector confidence for 2H21.
Cash flows are high, and we are beginning to see discussions about new capacity, which may be premature, especially if the supply chain issues are cyclical.
The party spoilers could be the major disconnect between Asia markets and the West, and a flatter global cost curve amid strength in US Natural gas/NGL prices.     

Cross Road Blues – Western Commodity Chemical Profit Surges, But The Equities Fail to Keep Pace

Western commodity chemical industry profitability remains near historic highs, but equity performance in this subsector has underperformed peers. We discuss headwinds facing commodity sector equity performance in 2H21.
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., Celanese, Braskem, Honeywell, Posco Chemicals, TPI Composites, & other items).
Sector demand indicators broadly remain robust, but we flag varied cost inflation and a mixed demand setting facing chemical product chains in 2H21.
We find numerous ESG announcements worth mention, ranging from the WoW decline in EU CO2 prices to multiple global project updates.
Along with publishing our latest ESG weekly, we launch a multi-client initiative on carbon abatement in conjunction with the Power Research Group.
We note numerous other pertinent chemical sector items in this report.

No Line On The Horizon – Optimistic Demand Views & Supply Chain Issues Stand Out With 2Q Reports

Commodity chemical producer 2Q result comments are broadly optimistic, while downstream/specialty producers flag cost inflation and input sourcing issues. We discuss the Dow 2Q business update and multiple sector reports.
We highlight pertinent chemical sector corporate updates (e.g., Dow, Alpek, Givaudan, Sika, BASF, Kureha, Evonik, & other business news).
Sector end-demand indicators remain broadly strong, but we flag several logistic items and other indicators showing varied sub-sector momentum.
We flag several ESG items worth mention, ranging from IEA research on empowering cities toward net-zero to views of electrifying the airline industry.
Along with publishing our latest ESG weekly, we highlight our multi-client initiative on carbon abatement in conjunction with the Power Research Group.
We note numerous other relevant chemical sector items in this report.

Cluster F***ed: The Dangerous Scale Component of CCS

As carbon values rise, carbon sequestration plans also rise and a “cluster” trend is developing – good for those who can participate – quite bad for the rest.
Teaming up to get real scale in CCS could create a very steep abatement cost difference among companies in the same end markets based on proximity to CCS.
Other offset options might be available at disadvantaged locations, but the cost difference would still be very high and create sizable advantages for the lucky ones.
We discuss the regulatory waiting game and how it is more important in some areas of energy transition than others – largely dependent on capital risk.
Otherwise, the call for more renewable power grows ever louder and we look again at the risk of inflation, as supply tries to keep pace.