Sustainability & Energy Transition
1st Topic of the Week: Aluminum is earning a deliverability premium as power costs rise and buyers pre-cover supply, which we expect to widen dispersion
April 10, 2026
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1st Topic of the Week: Aluminum is earning a deliverability premium as power costs rise and buyers pre-cover supply, which we expect to widen dispersion
General Thoughts: Rising input costs are exposing margin fragility across industries, shifting advantage to pricing power, as policy-driven demand hopes build to offset war-driven inflation
General Thoughts: Supply shocks are shifting power from cost to control, concentrating value in integrated systems as export-driven convergence reshapes demand, margins, and capital allocation
General Thoughts: Integration, logistics flexibility, and feedstock advantage are increasingly replacing scale as the chemical sector’s defining competitive edge, steering capital toward integrated production platforms.
General Thoughts: Energy shocks are redistributing profitability across industrial value chains as surging ex-US energy costs compress petrochemical margins, tighten fertilizer markets, and strengthen North
1st Topic of the Week: Oil-corn price dispersion is reviving the policy case for permanent E15 expansion. Could energy inflation accelerate ethanol demand faster than
General Thoughts: Feedstock volatility, still weak demand, and supply chain stress accelerate global chemical restructuring as companies actively reshape portfolios to improve long-term risk-adjusted returns.
General Thoughts: Crude oil and Ex-US natural gas price strength relative to US levels has steepened the global cost curve for most chemicals, accelerating rationalization
1st Topic of the Week: With scrap still dominant and China’s costs falling, Western battery recyclers are forced to secure contracts, utilization, and pricing power
General Thoughts: Energy-linked corn economics and widening oil–gas dispersion are shifting global marginal cost leadership toward natural gas advantaged, capital-disciplined integrated production platforms globally.
Supply
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