Base Chemical Global Analysis
Feedstock Market Trends: Brent Crude and ex-US naphtha values reflected more support WoW than global natural gas and US ethane – North American costs, on
January 22, 2024
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Feedstock Market Trends: Brent Crude and ex-US naphtha values reflected more support WoW than global natural gas and US ethane – North American costs, on
Feedstock Market Trends: North American petrochemical producers hold a sizable cost advantage compared to Europe and Asia. However, this advantage has shrunk YTD as its
Brent Crude oil and US natural gas price movements fail to fully display the jump in the US ethylene production cost advantage relative to Asia
US ethylene production economics, based on ethane feedstock, held up WoW, as cost deflation helps support domestic ethylene profit and integrated domestic polymer margins despite
We remain more confident in the slope of the global chemical cost curve and supply improvement staying in favor of current low-cost producers in 1H24
The weakness in Brent Crude Oil values relative to US natural gas during the past three months has favored lower polymer prices despite outages working
Global spot polymer values, on average, decreased WoW, with polypropylene (PP) reflecting more support than polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – a trend likely
Global ammonia prices have risen QTD in 4Q23, led higher by supportive end-demand and increased Ex-US natural gas costs relative to US levels. We view
US integrated polymer margins have risen QTD in 4Q23 to a higher level than their 3Q23 and 4Q22 average, likely spurring positive domestic producer views
The positive momentum in global commodity chemical prices in 3Q is stalling in early 4Q23 – absent crude oil market support or a major global
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