General Thoughts: US relative cost advantages persist, but rising global prices are compressing downstream margins as exports rise and cost transmission accelerates across global industrial
China’s 0.5% YoY factory-gate inflation in March removed a trusted global relief valve, forcing markets to underwrite firmer resin and intermediate floors, slower cost deflation,
1st Topic of the Week: Aluminum is earning a deliverability premium as power costs rise and buyers pre-cover supply, which we expect to widen dispersion
Chemical sector outcomes in 2026 will hinge more on managing volatility across power, gas, and policy, not on forecasting averages, as infrastructure constraints and capital
C-MACC Sunday Executive Summary Return to Sender: Integration Rocks While Scale Rolls Away Exhibit 1: BASF pushes forward with its “winning ways” strategy, unlocking value
General Thoughts: Global capital abandons volume obsession for systems resilience, rewarding platforms integrating process, certification, and proximity, transforming supply security into monetized strategic advantage.
Supply
Time-to-power is increasingly setting project value, with capital favoring assets that guarantee firm megawatts through onsite generation, secured interconnects, and accelerated commissioning, not lowest theoretical
General Thoughts: The illusion of cheap energy collapses as surging demand, infrastructure delays, and escalating capital costs institutionalize electricity inflation, turning resilience into privilege and
Europe’s industrial decline isn’t cyclical; it’s mostly structural, exposing a continent caught between global cost realities and domestic policy fragmentation, with competitiveness eroding faster than
General Thoughts: A global petrochemical power shift is underway—collapsing costs, currency and trade chaos, and a slowing green push collide to reshape trade, challenge US
Sign up below to get updates on our events, publications, and insights—straight to your inbox.
