General Thoughts: Lower crude should compress cost gaps, but uneven cargo normalization, depleted inventories, and weak affordability will leave margin recovery more regional and slower than spot prices imply.

Feedstocks & Energy: Falling crude should narrow oil-linked crackers’ cost gap relative to USGC ethane, but delayed Asian supply relief should

General Thoughts: July’s feedstock and energy cost increase has survived this week’s pullback, leaving 2H26 earnings dependent on which producers can protect margins without pricing customers out or restoring production too quickly.

Feedstocks & Energy: Despite weakness at the start of the week, Brent remains ~22% above its late-June level,

General Thoughts: Rising input costs are separating price gains from earnings, rewarding refiners and feedstock-advantaged producers as cautious customers delay commitments and higher-cost operators reduce production.

Feedstocks & Energy: South Korea’s reserve review could keep Asian naphtha firmer than cracker margins justify, pushing weaker merchant producers to cut runs before

General Thoughts: Outside the US, higher energy and chemical feedstock costs are slowing downstream price declines, but weak demand and returning production still prevent those gains from producing broad margin recovery.

Feedstocks & Energy: North American ethane and natural gas costs fell last week; Asian naphtha also eased modestly; and

General Thoughts: Global chemical markets are still trying to find a floor as late 2Q26 cost relief brought supply back before demand, logistics, and energy risks stabilized enough to support pricing power.

Feedstocks & Energy: Mixed global feedstock signals last week should not obscure the underappreciated 2H26 risk that crude,

General Thoughts: Market indicators near early-year levels do not mean risks have reset; lower ex-US production costs and working capital positions test routes, timing, and customer urgency as supply returns against weak demand.

Feedstocks & Energy: Oil-linked feedstock relief and ex-US natural gas declines have flattened global chemical cost curves,

General Thoughts: Global chemical feedstock cost relief is tempting chemical producers back into production, but the real call is whether fresh supply meets demand or returns the late 2Q26 margin benefit to buyers through 2H26.

Feedstocks & Energy: Feedstock cost relief abroad, not in the US, persists as crude oil,

General Thoughts: Lower costs only become margin when prices hold, leaving commercial terms to separate temporary procurement relief from durable margin control across chemicals, fuels, and agriculture.

Feedstocks & Energy: Lower naphtha reduces oil-linked feedstock costs, but China’s return and low inventories limit crude downside, while wide gas spreads preserve