Global Weekly Catalyst No. 339

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 339

• General Thoughts: Outside the US, higher energy and chemical feedstock costs are slowing downstream price declines, but weak demand and returning production still prevent those gains from producing broad margin recovery.
• Feedstocks & Energy: North American ethane and natural gas costs fell last week; Asian naphtha also eased modestly; and Europe faced higher naphtha and gas costs as supply routes remained partly disrupted and costly.
• Olefins: US and Asian spot olefins recovered last week, but European markets weakened. European propylene values fell sharply, lifting pressure on regional producers to reassess operating rates if buying remains subdued.
• Other Base Chemicals: Spot benzene and styrene prices rose across all three regions last week; methanol fell in major global markets; and chlor-alkali stability depends on caustic offsetting still-weak chlorine derivative pricing.
• Agriculture: US ammonia fell sharply WoW as urea rose; overseas ammonia strengthened; crop prices improved; and phosphate costs remained elevated, with fertilizer affordability and supply risk moving in opposite directions.
• Refining & Biofuels: US refining margins approached 2026 highs as product prices outpaced crude, Russian diesel restrictions tightened supply, and ethanol margins remained positive despite firmer corn costs last week.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Higher Energy Costs Outside the US Are Helping Support Global Chemical Prices.

Source: C-MACC Estimates, July 2026