General Thoughts: Ammonia’s fertilizer-anchored cycle diverges from most chemicals, signaling tight supply and investment incentives, while petrochemicals face surplus-driven signals discouraging growth capital.
Supply Chain/Commodities:
General Thoughts: A key debate across polymer markets is whether current trough conditions will carry from 2025 to 2026 and potentially worsen; most expect a
General Thoughts: Shifting energy costs, tighter margins, and policy uncertainty redraw the global chemicals map, favoring integrated, flexible producers but pressuring most in a demand-
General Thoughts: A structural retreat is intensifying across Europe’s plastics sector, as global capital flees high-cost production assets in favor of feedstock agility, policy certainty,
General Thoughts: US-integrated chemical producers and midstream players gain as global feedstock pulls intensify and rising Chinese integration reshapes markets, tightening margins for US ethylene
Though under pressure now, US building and construction may be the market’s most mispriced rebound story—overlooked not due to its weak current fundamentals, but because
US commodity chemical equities have underperformed YTD, following a period of significant underperformance in 2H24, as global trade uncertainties have boosted concerns surrounding its already
General Thoughts: We highlight the global price premium in low-density polyethylene (PE) relative to linear-low and high-density PE and why global LDPE premiums could remain
Several themes that emerged in 2024 will run through 2025, especially the power shortage theme, which we expect to drive more investment and flexibility from
Much like the unaffordability of energy transition, trade tensions were alive and well long before the US election. They are now much more in focus,
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