Capital allocation is increasingly shifting from speculative growth and volume chasing toward return gating, as firms demand contracted cash flows, controllable execution risk, and downside
1st Topic of the Week: Wind input demand is shrinking as power dollars pivot to other generation sources and grid equipment; will policy ultimately redirect
Speculative US new-home inventory has become strategic liquidity, converting homebuilding into a precision-timed manufacturing network where builder returns and supplier throughput increasingly synchronize.
Cycle-time compression
General Thoughts: Pessimism in petrochemicals is capitulation, not a signal; trough pricing, rationalizations, and capital scarcity prewire tighter conditions, as integration and customer intimacy reward
1st Topic of the Week: We discuss the Trump pause in IRA funding and likely upcoming shifts to this incentive package, highlighting our positive view
General Thoughts: While many companies rapidly expanded energy transition efforts amid surging expectations in 2022/23, Linde took a more patient and balanced approach that has
General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell 53% in 2023, closing the year at YTD low, as energy transition growth failed to offset
The US spot polymer-grade propylene (PGP) prices have surged higher amid rising crude oil values in 3Q23 and outages – a negative for non-integrated buyers
Global chemical market business conditions have worsened since 2021. We discuss slides from Shell’s 2021 and 2023 strategic updates to show how its view of
Our theme around the possible need for backward integration for all basic chemical producers as energy transition evolves was validated by INEOS this week.
INEOS
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