Global resin trade is fragmenting under tariffs, compliance costs, and asymmetric capacity additions, making “domestic-first” logic obsolete and exposing leaders without international scope to lasting
1st Topic of the Week: As US federal climate rules recede, will fragmented state policies form a viable national framework, or deepen structural uncertainty that
General Thoughts: State-backed expansion, protectionist trade shifts, and counter-cyclical consolidation are redefining chemicals, rewarding scale, optionality, and resilience over near-term profits or pure cost leadership.
US-China inflation divergence realigns capital flows, currency dynamics, and trade competitiveness across services, manufacturing, and energy-linked exports spanning petrochemicals, agriculture, and industrial inputs.
US chemical
General Thoughts: Global industry is quietly breaking apart, as climate shocks, political pressure, and new rules reshape supply chains, rewarding those ready for volatility, imbalance,
China’s latest retaliatory tariff threats increase the risk of a supply chain reset, holding the potential to realign global petrochemical flows structurally, erode US margins,
1st Topic of the Week: Water scarcity poses a growing constraint to lithium production, with over half of global reserves in water-stressed regions—escalating risks of
General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell 1% MoM in November, a second consecutive monthly drop, to fall ~11% below its YTD high
As worsening business conditions into yearend lower 2023 outlooks, we think money will be made by those making consolidation moves versus those who hide.
Almost
The public alignment at COP27 likely masks country concerns around how to manage both climate goals and current energy, food, and inflation issues.
Accelerating
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