Global Market Analysis
US Chlor-Vinyl margins have increased from 4Q22 lows in 1Q23, and we discuss Oxy views of this product chain in 2023 – we share a
February 28, 2023
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US Chlor-Vinyl margins have increased from 4Q22 lows in 1Q23, and we discuss Oxy views of this product chain in 2023 – we share a
North American integrated polymer margins have broadly increased relative to 1Q23 lows – we flag US polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) margins are higher
Our theme around the possible need for backward integration for all basic chemical producers as energy transition evolves was validated by INEOS this week.
INEOS
European chemical producers face the challenges of a global production cost disadvantage and a generally mature consumer growth profile, spurring some to make aggressive strategic
The North American chemical producer cost advantage remains significant relative to overseas peers, as is the case for domestic energy producers, suggesting sizable integration benefits.
Ammonia leads again, following earning reports from the existing producers and more speculation around who will enter the market – our expectations are high.
Current
We highlight US cost advantages in Chlor-alkali and ethylene relative to Europe (and Asia), and why we take a constructive view of domestic vinyl producers,
The European petrochemical industry is most at risk of further shutdown from North American competition – the production cost curve supports this move, and producers
Western consumers will likely face another year of higher prices relative to Asia, but it puts European producers most at risk with its cost disadvantage
Global ammonia market fundamentals will likely stay much tighter during the next 10 years relative to the prior period, and we foresee a considerable shift
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