Daily Chemical Reaction
Smells Like Teen Spirit: Ammonia May Stink, But Its Future Looks Fragrant – New Uses Barely Adolescent
Key Points:
- Global ammonia market fundamentals will likely stay much tighter during the next 10 years relative to the prior period, and we foresee a considerable shift in the North American market.
- Global natural gas prices have fallen considerably relative to 2H22 highs. US natural gas prices have decreased significantly compared to NW Europe and Asia values since mid-2022 levels.
- We discuss Nutrien and CF Industries fertilizer and crop input market view, which generally aligns with ours, as we foresee tight crop conditions advancing farmer purchases in 2023.
- We discuss the potential development of a green and blue ammonia export facility in South Texas and highlight Yara blue ammonia production cash cost estimates in Europe vs. the US.
- North American chemical rail traffic has fallen YTD in 2023 relative to 2022. Most of the decline results from lower volume in the US as the volume trend in Canada and Mexico is positive.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams