Sustainability, Energy Transition, ESG | Weekly Thematic

C-MACC Weekly “CRETER” (Climate etc.)

Will Density Drive Destiny? Ammonia As a Fuel is Not Stupid

• Ammonia leads again, following earning reports from the existing producers and more speculation around who will enter the market – our expectations are high.
• Current prices for ammonia may be a red herring, with spring demand likely to highlight shortages and lift pricing again from what are still historic highs.
• If ammonia as fuel takes off, fertilizer markets could be outbid for raw materials, driving higher urea/UAN pricing and shortages – this is not a positive for farmers.
• We note activity in Carbon Capture and a European price that has recently hit records – this, and the higher 45Q credit in the US, should drive CCS investment.
• We look at more forecasts of renewable power shortages, constraints on hydropower, the cracks in the lithium market, and carbon-free consulting.

We are 12 days away from the start of CERA week in Houston (happy to meet up with anyone attending), and ahead of the event, we would expect to see a step up in announcements, especially from those speaking, as they will likely want something new to point to, especially on energy transition.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams