Recession? Possibly, But Not A Conventional One

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 109

Recession? Possibly, But Not A Conventional One

• As the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues, recession expectations are increasing – food and energy price inflation will negatively impact spending in other areas.
• Absent escalation of the war, dragging in NATO, we foresee energy security, energy transition, and reshoring spending escalating even if a recession develops.
• Consequently, demand and pricing for many materials could remain high unless consumer-durable markets collapse severely. Lower pricing might boost demand.
• An extreme competitive edge is accruing to US materials industries, and a more decoupled linkage between US natural gas and oil prices would further help.
• Otherwise, we look at the flip side – rising costs in Asia and Europe cutting chemical production – as well as the renewed interest in some ESG sectors.

Last week we discussed 21 Chemicals and related products and 123 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams