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C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 112
Time To Sweat The Small Stuff – Will All Ethylene Units Survive
- As the cost of climate change becomes uniform and more widely accepted, some higher emitting, less efficient industrial facilities will close – including ethylene.
- Looking globally, most of more than 70 small ethylene plants are naphtha-based and have a high carbon footprint but not enough CO2 to abate it economically.
- Many of these units will be candidates for closure in a setting of high oil prices and product oversupply – notably in China today, but Europe also faces headwinds.
- As we think about our mega-cycle thesis, as much as 12 million tons of ethylene capacity globally may eventually not be able to operate – a plus for tighter markets.
- Otherwise, we discuss the recycled resin market, refinery margins, PMI numbers and what might keep it supported, and US surpluses looking for ships to Europe.
Last week we discussed 23 Chemicals and related products and 131 Companies.
See PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams