The Weekly Catalyst
Global Chemical Update – Colder Weather
- Global chemical demand headwinds and supply tailwinds are pressuring producer profitability, and we think outages are likely needed to push prices notably higher. Our indicators suggest a weak 1Q23.
- North American polyvinyl chloride (PVC) led global polymer prices higher WoW, per our estimate, which also showed NW Europe polypropylene (PP) posted the greatest downtick during the period.
- Brent Crude and Ex-US naphtha values declined WoW relative to US natural gas and USGC ethane, favoring global petrochemical production and, most negatively, for North American producers.
- Macro indicators for farm-input sellers improved WoW. Corn values moved higher relative to soybeans, and ammonia-based fertilizer prices, on average, were unchanged though margins fell.