Sunday Executive Summary

2023 – In The Frying Pan – But Heading Into The Fire, Maybe!

January 2, 2023

Companies Mentioned: Westlake, Oxy, Shin-Etsu, Formosa Plastics, Orbia, LyondellBasell, Braskem, ExxonMobil, Aramco, Sabic, Sinopec, Shell, Brenntag, Univar, Lenzing, Sika, K+S, Trinseo, Vopak, Altana, ASK Chemicals, LG Chem, Ascension Clean Energy, Topsoe, Linde, Lotte Chem, TPC Group, Henkel, Versalis, Perstorp, Borealis, Elkem, BASF, Citgo Petroleum, OCI N.V., Azelis, Eni, Covestro, Mitsui, Ineos, Ecolab, Lafarge, Schnitzer Steel, Olin, OMV, Adnoc, Chandra Asri, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Mitsubishi Chemical, European Lithium, Woodside, Air Liquide, Umicore, Lummus, Novonix, 3M, Asymchem, NextDecade, Hyundai Engineering, TotalEnergies, Engie, LifeZone, Fortescue Metals, Iberdrola, Franklin Templeton, FedEx, Nike, Dole, Luxfer, Salesforce, QuantumScape, Climeworks, Air Products, Dow, GoGreen, Lifezone Metals, Enviva, Net Power, Methanex, Natgasoline, Celanese, Solvay, Worthington Industries, ISE Chemicals, Orsted, Lotte Fine Chemicals, Technip Energies, Golden Triangle Polymers, QatarEnergy, Fulcrum BioEnergy, Oneok, Chevron, Svante, Clariant, Petrobras, Amcor, Chevron Lummus Global, American Vanguard, CarMax, Cleveland-Cliffs, LanzaTech, Capstone Green Energy, Anellotech, Maire Tecnimont, Vestas, Wanhua, Huntsman, Repsol, Röhm, JK Cements, Acro Paints, Taiyo Oil, Syrah Resources, Tesla, Harvest Midstream, Phillips 66, Oxxynova, ECR Minerals, TSMC, Syngenta, Chart Industries, Raven SR, Nikola, White Martins, Grupa Azoty, Neste, Freeport LNG, AMG, CP Chemical, Nova Chemicals, Honeywell, IFF, Nippon Soda, Meghmani Organics, ESM, ProLogium, Petro Rabigh, SK Materials, Showa Denko, Asian Paints, KMG, Plains All American, Sumitomo Chemical, Mondi, Synova, Engel, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Mitsubishi Electric, ABB, Baker Hughes, Marathon Oil Corp., GM, Ford, VW, Origin Materials, Danimer Scientific, Bloom Energy, Gevo, Lucid, Rivian, DuPont, Renewable Energy, bp, Archaea, AkzoNobel, OQ, Sempra Infrastructure, Superior, Certarus, Chimei, KPI, Forum Energy Technologies, Pemex, Tallgrass, Cedar Fair, PKN Orlen, Cal-Maine Foods, Carbon Streaming, Amyris, Trina Solar, PPG, Sherwin-Williams, Lanxess, LSB Industries, Venture Global, Evonik, Sabo, EDF Renewables, PhosAgro, Black & Veatch, BYD, ABC Technologies, Shintech, Graco, Amazon, Home Depot, TC Energy, Suncor Energy, Goodyear, Kraton
Commodities Mentioned: Polymers, PVC, PP, PE, PU, PC, PS, PET, Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Renewable Power, Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Hydropower, Raw Materials, Metals, Steel, Nickel, Copper, Batteries, Fossil Fuel, Coal, Carbon, Oil, Lithium, Recycled Plastics, Ammonia, Biomass, Water, Biofuels, Biomaterials, Storage, EVs, PHA, PLA, SAF, RNG

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 149

2023 – In The Frying Pan – But Heading Into The Fire, Maybe!

2023 is off to a bad start with low margins (but maybe not low enough) and global operating rates reflecting significant oversupply, which could worsen.
North American cost advantages only matter if surpluses can find offshore homes and if not, we could see an “island” of oversupply and prices reflecting costs.
We continue to like the Ag chem/fertilizer sector as we see shortages persisting well beyond 2023. Otherwise, energy transition should support industrial gases.
Commodity valuations may bounce in 1Q, but they will be short without production upsets (storms/freezes). Specialties are cheap but have demand issues.
As we try to focus on 2023, we are distracted by plans post-2023, which look counterintuitive for chemical companies, but perhaps common sense for others.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams