Daily Chemical Reaction
Relieving Stress – Western Natural Gas Price Drop Favors Chemical Production, Lifts Oversupply Risk
Key Points:
- Weakness in Western natural gas prices favors chemical production, lifting oversupply risk in many products, especially in areas with overly optimistic demand outlooks.
- We discuss factors impacting ExxonMobil 4Q22 results relative to 3Q22 and note that its 2022 EBITDA will still likely be ~2x full-year 2021 EBITDA – over US$100 billion!
- We highlight the Yara announcement to add ammonia import capabilities in Europe and discuss RPM results that include an early-year view worth consideration for peers.
- We highlight an auto supplier view that China holds a 10,000 Euro EV production cost advantage over European peers and rising China EV exports, along with other items.
- Consumer confidence indicators are increasingly at odds with consensus inflation forecasts in many product chains. We also flag ifo German auto sentiment trends.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams
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