Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

Yikes! Could It Really Be Different This Time?
March 26, 2023
Commodities Mentioned:
Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, efuels, Wind, Solar, Hydro, Renewable Power, Batteries, Lithium, Nickel, Copper, Waste, EVs, Methane, Biofuels, Biomaterials, Canola, Corn, Ethanol, Ethylene, Fertilizer, Biodiesel, Biomass, Syngas, Bio-nitrogen
Companies Mentioned:
LyondellBasell, Dow, Nova Chemicals, ExxonMobil, Westlake, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Enterprise Products, Navigator Holdings, CF Industries, Incitec Pivot, Technip, Sabic, Shell, CNOOC, Standard Lithium, McDermott, Aramco, Mura Technology, Gulf Coast Sequestration, North American Helium, Wanhua, Evonik, OCI Global, Lotte Fine Chemical, Navin Fluorine, LG Chem, Adani, Indorama, PureCycle, Mitsui, Saipem, Domo Chemicals, Altana, INEOS, Sempra, Eni, TotalEnergies, Air Liquide, Black & Veatch, New Fortress, Repsol, Sinofert, Bloom Energy, Oxy, Cabot, BASF, Olin, Danimer Scientific, Syngenta, Orica, BioTown BioGas, DIC, BYD, Capella Minerals, Nouryon, Kemira, Heartland Polymers, Asahi Kasei, Unipar, Trafigura, Vitol, Equate, Technip Energies, Phillips 66, Tesla, Ford, Enerpac Tools, Nike, Air Products, Fulcrum Bioenergy, Danimer, bp, Nokia, Samsung, Issaquena Green Power, Albemarle, Sinopec, GE, Svante, Sika, Lummus Technology, Envicco, Avantium, Kvadrat, Hyundai Moto Company, Advent Technologies, Indian Oil, Freeport LNG, Petrobras, ENEOS, ADNOC, BHP, Mars, Starbucks, Ryanair, Boeing, Centrica, Wacker, Pearl Polyurethane Systems, Umicore, Core Lithium, Huntsman, Nutrien, Braskem, Equinor, Viridi, OQ Chemicals, Nippon Shokubai, Siemens Gamesa, Spearment Energy, JERA, Marubeni, Reliance, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, ABB, Grupa Azoty, Stahl, Perstorp, US Steel, Fortune Minerals, Spruce Power, General Mills

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 161

Yikes! Could It Really Be Different This Time?

  • The projection at the WPC this week that polyethylene capacity will only operate at 80% rates in 2023 needs the context that this has not happened since 1982!
  • Weak demand growth and a surge in new capacity – especially in China – drove rates lower quickly and our inventory thesis would question any quick recovery.
  • Disbelief was the initial European reaction in the early 80s, but competition followed as did eventual break-even pricing; are we there again? It’s been 40 years.
  • We look at weak US polypropylene markets and margins but note that the chain has a margin because of cheap propane. Polyethylene is in better shape.
  • In energy transition, we look at the risk of underutilized expensive capacity and the inefficient use of hard to find materials.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams

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