Sequestering Competitive Advantage – The Best of the IRA

C-MACC Weekly “CRETER” (Climate etc.)

Sequestering Competitive Advantage – The Best of the IRA

• The most interesting part of the IRA from a US competitiveness perspective was likely already in place with 45Q – the IRA just raised the value enough to matter.
• Other IRA incentives likely allow US businesses to develop quickly, but not fast enough to change cost curves – 45Q does that for ethylene, ammonia & methanol.
• This all assumes that the world accepts “blue” products broadly – otherwise, there may be select markets – like blue ammonia in Japan – the US will be low cost.
• We look again at ambitious renewable power forecasts in the US and the danger of taking them seriously; premature closing of coal/gas plants may cause trouble.
• Otherwise, we look at recycling and renewable polymers (Origin), lithium recycling, “woke” investing, project risk, and introduce our “mad” headline award.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams