Sunday Executive Summary

Planning Blindfolded: Are Tomorrow’s Uncertainties Overwhelming?

August 20, 2023

Companies Mentioned: Westlake, Occidental, Shin-Etsu, Formosa Plastics, Orbia, Olin, Dow, Nova Chemicals, ExxonMobil, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Methanex, Mitsui Chemicals, OCI, Southern Chemical, Adnoc, Covestro, Braskem, BASF, SQM, Azure Minerals, Petrobras, Indorama Ventures, Neste, Esmark, US Steel, Jera, Oneok, Magellan Midstream Partners, Iberdrola, BP, Advanced Ionics, Shell, Yara, Li-Cycle, Anaergia, Lithium Royalty Corp., Celanese, Chemtrade, Westwater Resources, Pearce Renewables, NET Power, First Solar, Fisker, Tesla, Berry Global, PrimeEnergy Resources, Carbon Streaming, Accelera, Lightning eMotors, Chesapeake Energy, Sunnova, Pemex, Verde Clean Fuels, Nutrien, CF Industries, LSB Industries, Livent, Allkem, Albemarle, Ganfeng Lithium, Lithium Americas, Nippon Fine Chemical, Eastman, Phillips 66, Unigel, Energy Transfer, Crestwood Equity Partners, Kinetik, Shikoku Kasei, Sage Potash, Woodside Energy, Intel, Home Depot, Ford, BYD, 1PointFive, Hess Midstream, Strategic Resources, Cipher Neutron, VinFast, Tencent, TJX Companies, OxyVinyls, Siegfried, Erex, Cleveland Cliffs, SCG Chemicals, TotalEnergies, Piedmont Lithium, The Toro Company, Kimball Electronics, Walmart, Electriq Power, Avangrid, Caramuru Alimentos, Citgo Petroleum, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, ADM, Valero, The Andersons, Cargill, Poet Biorefining, Enterprise Products, Borouge, Odfjell, Stolt-Nielson, CES Energy, Air Products, Air Liquide, Linde, Oxy, Cornish Lithium, Lifezone Metals, Siemens, FREYR, Origin Materials, Danimer Scientific, Gevo, LSB, Carbon Engineering, Amyris, Newlight Technologies, DuPont, Huntsman, Axalta, Lotte Chemical, OMV, Petchem, Rompetrol, Evergrande, Bloom Energy, Viridis, Microsoft, CNOOC, Aramco, Hawaiian Electric, Syngenta, General Motors, Cheniere, Wärtsilä, KKR, Ocean Winds, Woodside Energy, Yara
Commodities Mentioned: Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Ethanol, PDH, Ethylene, Ammonia, Lithium, EVs, Batteries, Nickel, Copper, Brine, Methanol, SAF, PHA, Water

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 182

Planning Blindfolded: Are Tomorrow’s Uncertainties Overwhelming?

Within old energy, new energy, chemicals, and derivatives, it is less clear today where companies/investors will make the most money than at any prior time.
Industries with investment cycles spanning 10+ years find that uncertainties are stackable, and the range around outlooks is higher than in the past.
Looking at the chart below, how much investor heat would LyondellBasell be taking had it shut down the refinery a year earlier – how could they have known?
Stackable uncertainties drive stackable risks, and the opportunity for business paralysis is very high – what is more, for some, it may be the right path.
Otherwise, we look at autos and housing – one has downside risk, but the other may be at the bottom. We also look at a “clean China” and batteries.

Last week we discussed 28 Chemicals and Related Products and 146 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams