Daily Chemical Reaction
- We reiterate our constructive view of fertilizer and agricultural chemical markets, as we view this market as better poised to improve in late 2023 and 2024 relative to most chemical markets.
- The destocking of agricultural input product chains in 2023 was in response to overstocking in 2022 – the worst of this trend is likely behind us, and we flag drivers of potential improvement.
- Despite the recent equity performance, the global fundamental backdrop for agricultural input demand amid still elevated farmer incomes looks better than for commodity chemicals in 2024.
- We highlight gasoline price improvement ahead of Labor Day weekend, the strength in ethanol margins, and a few advances in hydrogen, including a potential Caribbean green hydrogen hub.
- North American chemical and grain rail traffic remains depressed YTD, led by weakness in the US relative to Canada and Mexico, and we also show the YTD decline in US truck utilization.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams