Peak Oil Debate Is Complex: Policy Backtracking Supports Oil Use

C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report

Peak Oil Debate Is Complex: Policy Backtracking Supports Oil Use

• The IEA supply/demand models assume policy can be enacted as stated – the flaw in this approach is that policy could backtrack, and costs are delaying progress.
• As noted with the UK this week, as estimates of complying with net-zero goals increase, governments must choose whether to bear the costs or change course.
• Cost increases that we are seeing to meet decarbonizing goals in the West are driven by hard-to-fix labor and materials issues as well as higher borrowing costs.
• As we have noted in prior work, delays in the West impact hydrocarbon needs but also allow China to gain an increasing experience edge and lower costs.
• Otherwise, we look at the CBAM and why it is upsetting so many countries, we look at the near-term shipping fuel options and talk more about RNG.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams