Energy Transition Demand Losing To Global Economic Malaise – Good For Buyers Bad For Investment, For Now

Daily Chemical Reaction

Energy Transition Demand Losing To Global Economic Malaise – Good For Buyers Bad For Investment, For Now

Key Points:

• The decline in critical mineral prices suggests that the macroeconomic backdrop has influenced demand more than energy transition growth. Lower prices favor stalling growth investments.
• There is a risk that this continues through 2024, and the recovery after that exposes significant critical mineral shortages because of the investment lag – lithium looks OK, but others may not.
• Ineos makes another opportunistic move in the US in a chemical market that is moving toward those willing to swing for the fences – we anticipate much more strategic movement in 24/25.
• We see OPEC’s moves as a leading indicator of weaker growth and note South Korea oil import declines. We also look at LNG growth and how it will drive surpluses of US chemical feedstocks.
• We comment on the carbon footprint of power-based hydrogen, who will buy decarbonized crops, why Mississippi may have a shot at hydrogen, and how US economic growth stays high.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams