Tops Drop – Brent Crude & Ex-US Naphtha Decline Favors Lower Global Commodity Petrochemical Values 

Daily Chemical Reaction

Tops Drop – Brent Crude & Ex-US Naphtha Decline Favors Lower Global Commodity Petrochemical Values

Key Points:

• Global feedstock values shifted in favor of a flatter global chemical production cost curve in the first week of 4Q23, putting downward pressure on recent price and US margin increases.
• The 3Q23 uptick in Crude oil and related chemical feedstock prices was negative for Europe and Asia, but favorable for US producers, supporting a better 2H23 than anticipated mid-year.
• The Crude oil and Ex-US naphtha decline in the first week of 4Q will not abruptly shift late-year profit expectations, but it could stall expectations for tighter-than-expected markets in 1Q24.
• We follow our discussion of yesterday’s ExxonMobil 3Q business update to provide views on the Shell update today, noting that the timing of realizing price and feedstock benefits vary.
• Among other items, we also highlight weakness in the Euro and British pound relative to the US Dollar as a plus for C-MACC Co-founder Graham Copley’s upcoming business trip to Europe.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams