Volatility: Your Worst Enemy in Oversupplied Markets

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 190

Volatility: Your Worst Enemy in Oversupplied Markets

• Periods of input oversupply, economic and demand uncertainty, and volatility tend to favor buyers much more than sellers – this is lousy news for chemicals.
• Buyers, also facing weaker demand and oversupply, use every cost-related swing down to drive prices lower, and sellers struggle to get relief if costs rise. 
• We could see continued meaningful oil and natural gas volatility in 2024, adding to the uncertainty of macro demand and rising political volatility.
• Expectations for 2024 are hard to model, and it remains unclear how corporates will position 2024 outlooks – we see too much optimism in estimates for many.
• Otherwise, we see more evidence that ammonia may be the 2024 bright spot, we look at concerns for EVs in 2024, and we look again at China’s lead in hydrogen.  

Last week we discussed 21 Chemicals/Topics and 134 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams