Global Chemical Update – Delicate

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Delicate

Key Points:

• US integrated polymer margins have risen QTD in 4Q23 to a higher level than their 3Q23 and 4Q22 average, likely spurring positive domestic producer views with 3Q23 reports relative to overseas peers.
• Our research shows production issues and global cost curves notably benefitting North American producers in 2H23 – these benefits may fall by 1Q24, kicking off a slower-than-expected start to 2024.
• We also discuss widening polymer-to-monomer spreads in Europe, likely signaling further cuts in non-integrated regional production, and reiterate our constructive view on global ammonia markets.