Sunday Executive Summary

China: The Unilateral OPEC of Critical Materials for Transition

October 22, 2023

Companies Mentioned: Dow, Nova Chemicals, ExxonMobil, Westlake, Oxy, Shell, OMV, Nutrien, CF Industries, LSB Industries, KOCH Fertilizer, Issaquena Green Power, LyondellBasell, Phillips 66, Albemarle, Liontown, Umicore, Wanhua Chemical, Rock Tech, Adama, BASF, RWE, Statcraft, Aker Horizons, Osaka Soda, Sibur, Syngenta, Lonza, Aramco, Vitol, Chevron, PetroChina, Celanese, Covestro, Evonik, Heliogen, Greenlines Technology, Svante, TotalEnergies, Rio Tinto, Vertex Energy, Newmont, BYD, Lucid Motors, Citroen, Tesla, Ford, General Mills, Walmart, Trinseo, Brenntag, Prologis, Sinopec, Pemex, Asahi Kasei, SK Chemicals, Perstorp, Unipar, Chandra Ashri, Eneos, Codelco, Lithium Power, Mitsubishi Chemical, Linde, Idemitsu, PPG, Orbia, Ascend Elements, Ganfeng Lithium, Hy2gen, Haldia Petrochemicals, UPM, Marathon Oil, Glencore, Plus Power, NatureWorks, Kolibri Global Energy, E3 Lithium, Stepan, Lotte Chemical, Alcoa, Kinder Morgan, Minerals Technologies, Avangrid, Ace Green Recycling, Gurit, EDF, Johnson Matthey, BP, Versalis, Novamont, BHP, Abel & Cole, Equinor, EnerVenue, Redwood Materials, Sipchem, Worley, Clariant, Liontown Resources, Danimer Scientific, Freeport-McMoRan, Rohm, Yara, Marathon Petroleum, Air Liquide, Honeywell, Iberdrola, Sasol, Liberty Energy, Venture Global, Navigator CO2, Sika, Sunnova, VinFast, Lynas Rare Earths, Jiangsu Sailboat Petrochemical Co., Ineos, Panoramic Resources, Syngenta Group, Spearmint Energy
Commodities Mentioned: Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Carbon, Ammonia, Methanol, Aluminum, Oil, Ethane, Ethylene, EVs, Batteries

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 191

China: The Unilateral OPEC of Critical Materials for Transition

Analysis of economic challenges in China suggests that the one option that could restore confidence would be better relations with the West – this looks unlikely.
We suspect that the graphite move has as much to do with price support as tit-for-tat retaliation on trade, and if it works, China could do this with other materials.
The behavior will drive even greater pressure to move supply away from China, but fixes are not easy or quick, and the net effect may be persistently higher prices.
This may also be the wrong move for China, as a growing feeling of insecurity has shattered local consumer confidence, and further insulation may worsen it.
Otherwise, challenges with 4Q guidance, why some hydrogen hubs are better than others, and understanding of how hard emission abatement is going to be

Last week, we discussed 25 Chemicals and Related Products and 121 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams