Sunday Executive Summary

Oil versus Equities – Sending Very Different Messages for 2024

December 3, 2023

Companies Mentioned: LyondellBasell, Dow, Nova Chemicals, ExxonMobil, Westlake, Shin-Etsu, Formosa Plastics, Oxy, Baystar, Braskem, Adnoc, BASF, LyondellBasell, Pinnacle Polymers, TotalEnergies, ALPLA, Repsol, ABB, Kemira, S-Oil, Methanex, Grupa Azoty, Orlen, Chemanol, Ineos, PetroChina, Röhm, SABIC, Samsung Engineering, Sinopec, Evonik, Nabaltec, Neste, Sika, Ingevity, Chemours, TC Energy, Eni, Uniper, Pemex, Petrobras, Lukoil, BP, Maersk, Versalis, OMV, Cheniere, Phillips 66, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, ARC Resources, Borealis, DuPont, Corteva, Elementis, Johnson Matthey, IMCD, AkzoNobel, Philips Carbon Black, Petronas Chemicals, Clariant, PlantSwitch, Topsoe, RWE, Vestas, Schneider Electric, ADM, Adani Power, FREYR Battery, The AZEK Company, Saint-Gobain, Shell, Mitsui Chemicals, Tronox, DIC, Posco, Aekyung Petrochemical, Jera, Technip Energies, John Cockerill, Titan Group, Sun Chemical, Enterprise Products, Origin Materials, Ford, GM, VW, Tesla, Orsted, Elliot, ACWA Power, Trane Technologies, Brooksfield, Oceaneering, Virgin Atlantic, Next Wave Energy, Integra Plastics AD, Livent, Albemarle, SQM, Glencore, Huntsman, CF Industries, Incitec Pivot, Eastman, Lanxess, Standard Lithium, Air Liquide, LCY Chemical, Lhyfe, RecycLiCo, Zenith, Wanhua, Samsung C&T, Lotte Chemical, Arkema, Tosoh, Standard Gas, Yara, North Sea Container Line, Mitsubishi Electric, First Quantum, Breakthrough Energy, Williams, Vopak, Amogy
Commodities Mentioned: Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Renewable Fuels, SAF, Corn, Ethanol, Ethylene, Alkylate, Ammonia, Methanol, Soy, Canola, Wood Waste

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 197

Oil versus Equities – Sending Very Different Messages for 2024

The lack of reaction in oil prices to the proposed new OPEC cuts suggests that the oil market is paying far more attention to weakening demand than before.
By contrast, the rally in equities, especially in the US, suggests an “all is well” attitude, likely backward-looking (revised GDP numbers) and likely too bullish.
Industrial growth is not supporting the resilience of the US economy – while investments are rising, production is not – consumers are borrowing to spend.
We question the idea that 2H 2024 could significantly improve for any industry and suggest that corporate positioning is just a normal reaction to uncertainty.
Otherwise, we focus on chemical feedstock surpluses, why minerals markets are weak, activism, regional hydrogen costs, and what fuels incentives mean for food.

Last week, we discussed 25 Chemicals and Related Products and 127 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams