2024 Outlook – So Much Depends On Oil Prices

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 199

2024 Outlook – So Much Depends On Oil Prices

• Stock valuations in general suggest a better year for chemicals in 2024, driven by estimates that expect growth over 2023 – oil prices will impact costs and growth.
• The oil market is predicting weakness in supply/demand, although not much.  OPEC+’s willingness to make steeper cuts could determine 2024 economic growth.
• Despite the fall in oil prices, the US competitive advantage is expanding as US natural gas and ethane are weaker than crude oil – Europe needs lower oil prices.
• Major change likely in the forward lithium dynamic, with some large balance sheets chasing low-cost options – volatility and some high-cost failures may follow.
• Otherwise, we look at ADNOC’s spending spree, the IRS tax guidance for hydrogen, COP28 progress, and a more fragile EU which could impact 2024/25.

Last week we discussed 24 Chemicals and Related Products and 127 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams