Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

2024 Outlook – So Much Depends On Oil Prices
December 17, 2023
Commodities Mentioned:
Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Fossil Fuels, Plastic, Nickel, Cobalt, E-Fuels, Nuclear, Hydro, Carbon, Wind Turbines, SAF, Corn, Soy, Canola
Companies Mentioned:
Enterprise Products, Methanex, Westlake, Oxy, Shin-Etsu, Formosa, Dow, Nova Chemicals, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, Braskem, CF Industries, Nutrien, POET, Valero, Green Plains, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Yara, LSB Industries, BASF, Shell, SK Innovation, Arkema, Neste, Draslovka, OMV, Synthos, Posco, Orlen, PPG, OQ Chemicals, Kemira, Adnoc, Mitsubishi, Lithium Australia, Elkem, Solvay, Sumitomo Chemical, Azelis, Unigel, Nickel Industries, Unilever, Wanhua Chemical, Pertamina, Petrobras, Nouryon, CNOOC, Dairen Chemical, Formosa Plastics, Innospec, DKSH, Hy Stor Energy, PTTGC, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Macquarie, Pembina, Sibur, BP, Venture Global, Ineos, SABIC, Linde, Weilian Chemical, Emerald Packaging, Aker Carbon Capture, JERA, Resonac, Glencore, Air Products, Twinza Oil Limited, Hyliion, HyTerra, Nuada, RWE, Standard Solar, TotalEnergies, Trafigura, ABB, Anglo American, Sherwin Williams, Albeamrle, Pembina Pipeline, Lanxess, Trina Solar, Cyclyx, Lifezone Metals, Umicore, Clean Energy Fuels Corp., Intrepid Potash, Tokuyama, OCI, Robertet Group, Masdar, Hy24, Mitsui, EcoVadis, Aramco, Chevron, Sinopec, Volt Carbon Technologies, R&P Polyplasstic, Exolum, Nestlé, Clariant, Climeworks, GE, Porsche, Ford, Versalis, Grupa Azoty, Evonik, Sika, Nextchem, Equinor, Enbridge, Covestro, Calpine, CITGO, SQM, Codelco, Howard Midstream, Daqo New Energy, Maersk, EDF, Vestas, Cadeler, Advanced Energy

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 199

2024 Outlook – So Much Depends On Oil Prices

  • Stock valuations in general suggest a better year for chemicals in 2024, driven by estimates that expect growth over 2023 – oil prices will impact costs and growth.
  • The oil market is predicting weakness in supply/demand, although not much.  OPEC+’s willingness to make steeper cuts could determine 2024 economic growth.
  • Despite the fall in oil prices, the US competitive advantage is expanding as US natural gas and ethane are weaker than crude oil – Europe needs lower oil prices.
  • Major change likely in the forward lithium dynamic, with some large balance sheets chasing low-cost options – volatility and some high-cost failures may follow.
  • Otherwise, we look at ADNOC’s spending spree, the IRS tax guidance for hydrogen, COP28 progress, and a more fragile EU which could impact 2024/25.

Last week we discussed 24 Chemicals and Related Products and 127 Companies.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams

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