Most Chemical Outlooks For 2024 Assume The Current Cost Curve Will Hold – Is This Prudent?

Companies Mentioned: Eastman, LyondellBasell, Albemarle, Sumitomo Chemical, Röhm, IMCD, SIIG, Brenntag, Consolidated Energy Limited, ExxonMobil, Baystar, Shell, Borouge, Orlen, Saint-Gobain, DCM Shriram, Balaji Amines, Wanhua, Taoka Chemical, BP, Whiting, Chevron, GAIL, ADNOC, QatarEnergy, Enterprise Products, Air Liquide, TotalEnergies, Nel, Microsoft, Eneos, UPM, Raizen, BYD, Toyota, Volvo, Polestar, Asahi Kasei, Eneco, ITOCHU
Commodities Mentioned: LLDPE, HDPE, PVC, PP, Caustic Soda, Phosphate, Potash, Styrene, Mixed Xylenes, Polyethylene, Gasoline, Diesel, Oil, LNG, Hydrogen, Biodiesel, R-PET, Ammonia, Carbon, SAF, Helium

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Most chemical producers anticipate a better year in 2024, driven by improving end-demand outside the US, notably in 2H24 – the impact of potential oil price shifts lacks adequate appreciation in most views.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss takeaways from the LyondellBasell 4Q23 business update and earnings conference call, the ExxonMobil and Eastman 4Q results, and a few global chemical profit trend developments.
Energy/Upstream: Brent Crude oil and Ex-US natural gas values declined into the week’s close, following the US natural gas move lower early this week, which we discuss and highlight a few views from Chevron and Shell.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss LyondellBasell and Eastman circular product business outlooks, and we also flag the notable weakness in EU carbon prices and show US EV buyer incentives unlikely to surge demand.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: China became the largest global vehicle exporter in 2023, nudging past Japan as its global EV market presence expands. We also show Eastman’s 2024 outlook by end-market, among other views.