C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report
Walking Back To (Un)Happiness: Will 2024 Be the Year to Reset 2030 Goals?
- 1st Topic of the Week: 2030 Shortfalls – The oil and gas companies are not alone in backtracking on climate and sustainability-related goals. As power shortfalls arise and renewable/recycle shortfalls emerge, those dependent on them will need to recalibrate, both at the company level and at the country level – is 2024 a reset year – probably.
- 2nd Topic of the Week: Carbon Offset Price Inflation – On a related note, we see an increasing risk that too many companies see carbon offsets as a 2030 lifeline, and that this will bid credit values materially higher. While DAC cost should be a logical price cap, if there are insufficient credits, prices could spike much higher.
- Otherwise – We look at very high expectations for recycled plastics margins, which imply an expected shortage (not evident today), more on Ørsted’s revised guidance and how that further increases China’s green leadership, another communications own-goal from Origin Materials, and biorefineries.
Exhibit 1: The lack of popularity for many clean energy-related stocks reflects the challenges they face.
Source: Capital IQ and C-MACC Analysis, February 2024