Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap

Powerless – Electricity Challenges Extend Beyond Energy Transition Goals
February 18, 2024
Commodities Mentioned:
Power, Styrene, PVC, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Hydrogen, Polyolefins, Ammonia, Methanol, Carbon, Water
Companies Mentioned:
Bloom Energy, Ørsted, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Trinseo, CF Industries, Oxy, Dow

C-MACC Sunday Thematic and Weekly Recap

Powerless – Electricity Challenges Extend Beyond Energy Transition Goals

  • We sum up a couple of weeks of focus on power availability and color, following our webcast earlier this week and some corporate announcements and comments that provide some focus – we suggest some band-aids.
  • Power demand is growing too quickly, and as fast as the world is adding renewables, it is struggling to keep pace with demand, let alone replace some of the less clean power sources – this is unlikely to change soon.
  • Electrification is now broadly viewed as a critical carbon abatement pathway. However, with data centers and other AI and crypto demand on a steep growth path, power supplies must grow faster than usual to keep pace.
  • While the focus should be on priorities, such as whether we want virtual AI bots to attend meetings for us or lower emissions, concerns with global power availability and its rising deployment costs are now surging.  
  • Otherwise, we ask whether “green is dead”, we look at relative inflation and the growing China edge, a dire outlook for styrene, whether the European PVC industry has a future, and hydrogen as a transport fuel.
  • Companies Mentioned: Bloom Energy, Ørsted, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Trinseo, CF Industries, Oxy, Dow
  • Products Mentioned: Power, Styrene, PVC, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Hydrogen, Polyolefins, Ammonia, Methanol, Carbon, Water

Exhibit 1: While we prefer to display C-MACC analysis in key charts – the lack of price deflation shown here is important.

Source: IEA – Electricity Forecast, 2024-2025, February 2024

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams


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