Critical Mineral Market Take-off In 1H24 Unlikely, More Likely a Period of Price Whack-A-Mole!

Companies Mentioned: SQM, Codelco, Buenassa, Mitsubishi Corporation, Rio Tinto, Innergex, LifeZone Metals, Jiangxi Copper, Borealis, BASF, EcoGraf Altilium, Nissan, Aurubis, Albermarle, BMW, Bekaert, Toshiba, BP, Li-Cycle, Mitsui Chemicals, Stena Recycling, 24M, X-BATT, Volkswagen, GE Vernova, Amazon, BYD, ChargePoint, EVgo Inc., Flux Power, Ørsted, Toyota Motor Corporation, Trafigura, Vestas, Avangrid, Tesla, Covestro, ENEC, Enel
Commodities Mentioned: Copper, Lithium, Nickel, Gold, Cobalt, Aluminum, Zinc, Chromium, Manganese, Hydrogen, Carbon, Biodiesel

Key Findings

General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index rose 1% MoM in February, marking its first MoM uptick since 2Q23. The index is down 37% YoY, and expectations are high for a 2024 recovery in most of its components.
Critical Mineral Supply: High long-term critical mineral demand expectations have kept many growth projects in motion despite low prices, putting some components of our price index in a better spot for recovery than others.
Clean Energy Components & Recycling: We discuss the battery material recycling market, as it is poised to expand as a critical mineral security source for some in the West despite facing headwinds from low virgin material prices.
Critical Mineral Macro Demand: We provide initial feedback from the GE Vernova investor day presentations and note several recent noteworthy items in global EV markets and from other critical mineral end-market indicators.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index rose 1% MoM in February, failing to regain December 2023 levels.