No April Fool – US Margins Surged in 1Q 2024, but it is almost all Feedstocks. Europe Still in Trouble

Polymer Market Trends: US integrated spot polymer margins leaped higher in 1Q24 compared to 2H23 levels and closed the quarter above their 1Q average despite reversing spot price momentum for most in late March.
Chemical Market Trends: Global base and intermediate spot chemical prices were primarily unchanged WoW, with non-integrated spot buyers in Europe seeing stiffer net headwinds in 1Q24 relative to the US and Asia.
Feedstock Market Trends: Crude Oil prices reached a multi-year high relative to US natural gas in March, and the global chemical cost curve significantly improved for US producers YTD relative to Europe and Asia.
Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices increased WoW, and global ammonia prices moved higher, which is a constructive development for global producers in the near term, though it favors increased production in 2Q.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US integrated polymer margins jumped in 1Q24, mostly returning to 1H23 average levels.