The Weekly Catalyst
Upstream Chemical & Ex-US Feedstock Values Declined WoW, Suggesting Weaker Global Spot Polymer Prices
- Polymer Market Trends: Global spot polymer prices reflected less weakness than upstream chemical values, and most Ex-US feedstock costs WoW, which increases the likelihood of polymer price weakness ahead.
- Chemical Market Trends: Global base and intermediate spot chemical prices were broadly lower WoW, with spot ethylene and propylene falling in all major markets. However, the most notable weakness was in Europe.
- Feedstock Market Trends: Crude oil prices decreased more than US natural gas WoW, but the oil-to-gas ratio stays near multi-year highs. European natural gas prices reflected strength relative to the US and Asia WoW.
- Agriculture Market Trends: Global ammonia values WoW showed price support, but the setting favors a net uptick in production margins for US producers relative to Europe. Crop prices modestly decreased WoW.
Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot polypropylene (PP) prices now reflect a more usual level relative to spot regional propylene relative to Asia and Europe. Upstream indicators WoW suggest global PP prices face downward pressure.
Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2024
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