Transition Solution Shortfalls – Either Very Good or Very Bad for Those Progressing

C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report

Transition Solution Shortfalls – Either Very Good or Very Bad for Those Progressing

• 1^st Topic of the Week: Those pushing ahead with risky transition investments – fuels, hydrogen, ammonia, direct air capture, will do well if the shortfalls we expect materialize as mandates bite – the risk is that the impact of the consequential rise in prices and consumer costs will cause governments to rethink mandates.
• 2^nd Topic of the Week: VW – saving Rivian? Only if VW can drive focus and production efficiencies, as EVs’ pricing environment looks poor. How long can VW and Amazon afford to prevent Rivian from failing, and will the turnaround happen in that time frame?
• Otherwise: We look at recycling consolidation, the CI opportunity with ExxonMobil’s DAC ambition, why nuclear power is a “must have”, and green steel.

Exhibit 1: The supply deficit suggested below assumes new capacity that we suspect will either be delayed or canceled.

Source: BloombergNEF, June 2024